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Emergent Research

  • EMERGENT RESEARCH is focused on better understanding the small business sector of the US and global economy.

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  • The authors are Steve King and Carolyn Ockels. Steve and Carolyn are partners at Emergent Research and Senior Fellows at the Society for New Communications Research. Carolyn is leading the coworking study and Steve is a member of the project team.

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  • Emergent Research works with corporate, government and non-profit clients. When we reference organizations that have provided us funding in the last year we will note it. If we mention a product or service that we received for free or other considerations, we will note it.
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September 14, 2011

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James Daniel

Great points. Also, one thing the forecast didn't take into account was the financial collapse of 2008. That has really tightened up lending from banks to small businesses. And that has had a negative affect on jobs. Until the banks start letting small businesses borrow money for startup and growing a business, things will remain sluggish.

Business Payroll Services

How do you measure the actual impact of a given feedback loop, and how do you know that estimate is accurate?

Steve

Measuring the impact depends on the feedback loop you are looking at. A lot of feedback loops are due to price changes and historical responses to price changes (elasticity of demand) are a good place to start.

Technological change is harder to estimate, but historical productivity rates are a good place to start.

The key is to think through your forecasts, the impacts they will have and the responses they generate. Scenario planning works well for this.

With forecasts you never know until after the fact how accurate you are. But thinking through the impacts will help a lot

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