The New York Times has a good article on political scientists being bad forecasters. Key quote:
It’s an open secret in my discipline: in terms of accurate political predictions (the field’s benchmark for what counts as science), my colleagues have failed spectacularly and wasted colossal amounts of time and money.
The article points out that dart throwing chimps have a better record of forecasting than political experts.
Alert readers will remember our article Dart Throwing Chimps Versus Futurists which covered the same ground. We also covered History's Worst Predictions, which claimed modern forecasters are no more accurate than the goat entrail reading Oracles of ancient times.
All of these are good reminders that no one can predict the future. But that won't keep us from trying. And at least no goats or chimps are hurt by our efforts.
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