Small Business Labs

Excellent Schwab Podcast Explains Survey Selection Bias

Every so often, we write an article knowing few people will read it.  And let's face it, survey sample selection bias is not a hot topic.

But you should read this article because survey selection bias is a growing problem.

This is because easy-to-use online survey tools allow people who are untrained in survey methods to easily and quickly create and field surveys.

Schwab's Choiceology podcast Survey Says covers what selection bias is and why it's a problem.  

The podcast starts with the story of the 1936 presidential election, which Franklin Roosevelt won in a landslide over Republican Alf Landon.

What few know about that election is that the Literary Digest presidential poll, considered the gold standard of presidential polls at the time, predicted Alf Landon would not just win - he would win in a landslide. 

This, of course, was a huge miss. Key quote from Social Science History's "President" Landon and the 1936 Literary Digest Poll:

"The disastrous prediction of an Alf Landon victory in the 1936 presidential election by the Literary Digest poll is a landmark event in the history of American survey research in general and polling in particular."

The prediction was so bad that the Literary Digest - a respected and successful magazine - went out of business two years later.

The failure was due to selection bias. Simply put, the Literary Digest's survey sample heavily overweighted Landon supporters. This led to an erroneous prediction that Landon would win.  

Because we're industry analysts, we review dozens of surveys yearly. More than a few suffer from selection bias, and we know not to trust their results.

So if you're a user of surveys or someone who fields surveys, you need to know about selection bias - and how to identify and avoid it.

And listening to the Schwab podcast is a quick and easy way to do this.  

Harvard Business Review on Personal Branding

Creating and maintaining a personal brand is important for everyone. But it's especially important for freelancers and independent workers - their brand is crucial to securing and keeping customers.  

Harvard Business Review's A New Approach to Building Your Personal Brand provides the best overview of the steps needed to create a personal brand we've seen.

It also nicely describes why you need one. Key quote:

For better or worse, in today's world everyone is a brand. Whether you're applying for a job, asking for a promotion, or writing a dating profile, your success will depend on getting others to recognize your value. So you need to get comfortable marketing yourself.

The article covers a seven-step process for personal branding. The steps are:

1. Define your purpose by exploring your mission, passion, and strengths, and thinking about whom you want to make a difference to and how.
2. Audit your personal brand equity by cataloging your credentials, doing a self-assessment, and researching how other people view you.
3. Construct your personal narrative by identifying memorable, resonant stories that will best convey your brand.
4. Embody your brand by paying attention to the message you're sending in every social interaction.
5. Communicate your brand story through speeches, social media, the press, and other channels.
6. Socialize your brand by getting influential people to share your stories.
7. Reevaluate and adjust your brand by doing an annual audit to find deficits to fix and strengths to build on.

The article goes into greater detail on how to accomplish each of the seven steps.  

We've used a similar approach since we started our business over two decades ago. For example, we started this blog in 2007 to help communicate and socialize our brand.  

And we completely agree with the article's conclusion and believe it's particularly true for small businesses and independent workers:

The personal branding process takes work. But we know from research and experience that it will allow you to better control your professional and personal image and thus the success and impact that you can have in the world.

Americans' Retirement Confidence Declined in 2023

According to Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI), Americans' confidence in a comfortable retirement declined the most in 2023 since the 2008-09 financial crisis.  

As the EBRI's chart below shows (click to enlarge), only sixty-four percent of workers feel at least somewhat confident about living a comfortable retirement, down from 73% in 2022.

The reasons, according to Barron's The Baby Boomer Retirement Crisis Is Here. Why the Richest Generation Is Struggling, are:

• A lack of retirement savings by many baby boomers
• Debt levels at retirement age are higher than in prior generations 
• Recent stock market declines
• Rising costs, especially for healthcare and long-term care
• Concerns about the viability of social security and Medicare

One way to help, according to many sources, is to work a bit longer - full-time or part-time - in retirement.  

The New York Time's How a Solo Gig Can Give You a Stronger Retirement says:

Adding a few more years of work to your retirement plan can be one of the best ways to improve retirement security, and some find that the best way to keep income flowing in one's later years is a sole proprietor business. 

The Motley Fool's Here's Why It Pays to Join the Gig Economy Before You Retire suggest starting a side gig before retirement. This gives you time to build the side gig into a successful business before entering retirement.

As we've noted in the past, older Americans have the highest rate of self-employment.  

And the growing interest -and need - by baby boomers to work in retirement is one of the reasons we continue to forecast growing numbers of independent workers.

See our Baby Boomer section for more on this topic.

Is the Metaverse Dead?

Yes, generative AI has replaced the metaverse as tech's next big thing. Despite that, we think the answer to the title's question is a resounding no.

But there are lots of articles proclaiming that the metaverse is dead. Our favorite is Insider's RIP Metaverse. Key quote:

"The Metaverse, the once-buzzy technology that promised to allow users to hang out awkwardly in a disorientating video-game-like world, has died after being abandoned by the business world. It was three years old."

We also like The Guardian's A moment's silence, please, for the death of Mark Zuckerberg's metaverse. It focuses on the vast sums of money Meta has spent on its metaverse vision, which has yet to generate much revenue or excitement.

Couple these views with the enormous hype around generative AI, and you can see why many think, as the Insider article puts it, the metaverse is "the latest fad to join the tech graveyard."

But the reasons we disagree are simple:

First, the metaverse includes a wide variety of very successful online games (think Roblox, Fortnite, etc.). So the gaming metaverse is already a large and growing industry.  

Second, the use of metaverse tools for industrial applications continues to expand. As the Harvard Business Review article Yes, the Metaverse is Still Happening points out:

"Look at how many companies are adopting "digital twins," or a virtual representation of a physical object, person, or place that is created using real-time data and advanced simulation models to provide a comprehensive, digital view of a real-world process.

At the moment, digital twins are most apparent at work, enabling a new world of possibilities across industries ranging from automotive to architecture, manufacturing, retail, telecommunications, and beyond."

The digital twin market is already large and expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. 

And third, the metaverse is already making headway as a tool for education and training. Again, this is a potentially large metaverse market.

We agree that the hyperbolic noise and expectations about the metaverse are over.  

But we believe the metaverse will continue growing - and be an important technology - especially in the abovementioned areas.

NPR's The Indicator on the Influencer Industry

The Indicator is an NPR radio show focusing on economics, work, and business. The shows are only about 9 minutes long and generally cover a single topic.

Recently, The Indicator did a week-long deep dive on the Influencer Industry- which is a big part of the creator economy - and one of the faster-growing segments of independent work.

The episodes are:

• Monday: The origins of the influencer industry
• Tuesday: The economics of the influencer industry
• Wednesday: Gen Z's dream job in the influencer industry
• Thursday: The dark side of the influencer industry
• Friday: Final thoughts on the influencer industry

The series provides an excellent overview of the influencer industry, and the key issues influencers face pursuing this path.

See our creator economy section for more details on influencers and the broader creator economy.

Also see The Creator Economy: Staking out New Territory, a recent research report from MBO Partners (we worked with MBO Partners on this study). 

Commercial Real Estate Industry Facing The Perfect Storm

Commercial real estate is getting a lot of media attention, with most articles forecasting stormy weather ahead for the industry.

For example, the title of Goldman Sachs's recent podcast on this topic is Navigating the 'perfect storm' in commercial real estate.

The Wall Street Journal's Commercial Real-Estate Woes Run Deeper Than in Past Downturns is also gloomy. Key quote: 

"Landlords are contending simultaneously with a cyclical market downturn and with secular changes in the way people work, live and shop. The sudden surge in interest rates caused property values to fall, while the rise of remote work and e-commerce are reducing demand for office and retail space."

Fortune's Office vacancy will increase by 55% by the end of the decade as hybrid and remote work push real estate to an 'inflection point' again paints a grim picture. Key quote:

"As much as 330 million square feet of U.S. office space could become vacant and unused by 2030 due to remote and hybrid work, according to a report released Wednesday by global real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield. When added to another 740 million square feet of space that will become vacant from "natural" causes, the total is around 1 billion square feet of unused office space building up over the next seven years."

And the retail industry continues to get hit by the shift to online shopping - and has to also deal with challenges related to remote work.  

Yahoo Finance's Retail store closures 'to sharply accelerate going forward': UBS research covers a study that estimates that "50,000 retail stores will close out of the current base of 940,000 stores in the United States by 2027, excluding gas and food service stations."  

If things turn out to be as dire as these articles are saying, it will have significant negative impacts on the overall economy.

We're more optimistic than these articles.  

But small businesses and independent workers with exposure to the commercial real estate industry should think through how they will deal with a major downturn in the commercial real estate market. 

Update The New York Times published A Bleak Outlook for Manhattan’s Office Space May Signal a Bigger Problem this morning.  It's hard to keep up with all the gloom and doom commercial real estate stories these days.  

The Surge in New Business Applications Shows No Sign of Slowing

The March 2023 Business Formation Statistics were released yesterday by the U.S. Census. And it was another strong month.

As the Census chart below shows (click to enlarge), there were 451,752 new business applications in March.

This continues the surge in new business applications that started during the pandemic in 2020. 

Prior to the pandemic. applications averaged around 300,000 per month. Since Q3 2020, they've averaged around 450,000 per month.  

About 300,000 of March's applications come from what the wordsmiths at Census call "applications other than high propensity."

These are applications from people not planning to hire employees - in other words, freelancers and other kinds of solopreneurs.

This continues the long-term shift in applications to nonemployers businesses. In 2005, about 60% of all applications were from businesses planning to have employees. Since the surge, about 2/3rds of all applications are from firms planning to be solopreneur businesses.

It's important to note that new business applications are applications for a federal tax I.D. And only about 20% of those who apply for a federal tax I.D. end up starting a business.

So if you read somewhere there were 450,000 new businesses started in March, it's wrong.

But a surge in applications also means a surge in new small and solopreneur businesses - with March's applications leading to about another 90,000 new businesses over the next year or so.

We're two and a half years into this surge in new business applications. We think it's now safe to say it's real.

Tupperware's Troubles

Tupperware, the iconic maker of food-storage goods, said it could go out of business.  

Founded by Earl Tupper in 1946, Tupperware was one of the first direct selling companies. Their sales channel innovation was independent sellers holding "Tupperware" parties, where primarily women hosts sold the product to their friends and family.  

The picture below (click to enlarge) is from the company's website.  It shows the title character from Amazon's popular series The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel hosting a Tupperware party (the show takes place in the 1950s).  

Nice Hats!

The direct selling industry is quite large. According to the latest statistics from The Direct Selling Association, 7.3 million Americans earn money as independent direct sellers.

Almost all direct sellers do it part-time (6.8 million), with most looking to direct selling as a flexible way to supplement their income.

But Tupperware has run into a couple of problems.

First, thanks to the gig economy, there are many more flexible, independent work options for people looking to supplement their income. This has resulted in fewer sellers choosing to work for Tupperware.  

Second, organizing parties and in-person selling is much harder due to today's time-challenged adults. Because of this, much of direct selling has moved online (and called social selling). 

But Tupperware has not effectively made the transition to online sales.

This is partly due to Tupperware being viewed as an old, stodgy brand by younger consumers.  This hurts their sales and their ability to attract younger sellers.  

The bottom line is Tupperware's sales are falling, their stock price is falling faster, and, adding to their troubles, they have a large amount of debt.

Despite Tupperware's troubles, the direct selling industry continues to do reasonably well overall. And we expect it to continue to attract millions of Americans looking for a flexible way to supplement their income.

The Creator Economy Continues to Grow and Despite Challenges, Creators are Highly Satisfied

MBO Partners recently released The Creator Economy: Staking Out New Territory, the third year of their ongoing tracking study of digital content creators.

A key finding is that the number of U.S. independent digital content creators (self-employed, solopreneurs, freelancers, etc.) who earn money by creating and distributing digital content increased by 14% in 2022, reaching 8.1 million. (click to enlarge the study chart below).

Creators report some of the highest satisfaction rates of all workers.  Over nine in ten (92%) report being highly satisfied (83%) or satisfied (9%) with their work.  

They're also passionate about being a creator - over two-thirds (68%) say pursuing a passion is the main reason they became creators.

And the vast majority plan to continue as digital content creators - 83% plan to continue as independent creators (57%) or build a bigger creator business (26%) over the next 2-3 years.

Regarding demographics, most creators are young - 71% are aged 40 or younger - and 57% are male. About 2/3rds report working in the creator economy part-time.

But despite the high satisfaction levels, creators face a number of challenges.

The well-known issue around creators' struggles to earn a living is evident from the study findings. Over half of the creators (61%) report earning less than $25,000 from their creator economy work, with 44% reporting earning less than $10,000.

Two other challenges jump out from the findings.

Almost four in ten independent creators (39%) say it's hard to be successful, and over one-third of all content creators (38%) report struggling with boundaries and burnout. These shares are substantially higher than reported by other types of independent workers.

But despite the challenges, many aspire to join the creator economy. The study found that 4.9 million Americans who say they are participating in the creator economy have yet to earn income from their creator economy activities.

And a stunning 41% of those with traditional jobs said they want to become digital content creators. Few of these workers will follow through, but these numbers illustrate how aspirational the creator economy is.

Despite the challenges and issues creators face, we expect their numbers to continue to increase over the next 3-5 years.

Becoming a content creator is easier and cheaper than even a few years ago - and the number of people aspiring to be creators is too large for the creator economy not to grow.

Emergent Research (that's us) worked with MBO Partners on this study.

Academic Paper Defines Digital Nomadism and the Five Types of Digital Nomads

An excellent academic paper - What is a digital nomad? Definition and taxonomy in the era of mainstream remote work - was recently published by the World Leisure Journal. 

Based on extensive research, the paper provides a detailed definition of digital nomadism. Key quote:

Digital nomads use digital technologies to work remotely, they have the ability to work and travel simultaneously, have autonomy over frequency and choice of location, and visit at least three locations a year that are not their own or a friend's or family home.

We like this definition because it provides more specificity than other definitions, including the one we use. In particular, we think "have autonomy over frequency and choice of location" is an important addition to the definition of digital nomads.

Clarity around trend definitions is an underappreciated issue. Since we study emerging trends, we regularly see the problems associated with the lack of consistent trend definitions. 

For example, the lack of a clear, consistently used definition of the "gig economy" continues to cause problems - especially confusion among policymakers.  

The paper also defines five types of digital nomads, illustrated in the paper's chart below (click to enlarge).

Like most academic journal articles, the paper extensively reviews academic research (with links) on digital nomads. 

Literature reviews are often one of the most beneficial parts of academic papers. We often find new sources of useful information in these reviews. 

We were interviewed by the author, anthropologist Dave Cook, and some of our work on digital nomads is cited.  

Fiverr's Creator Economy Guide

Fiverr released a Creator Economy Guide, which is designed to help aspiring and existing content creators "handle the ups and downs of the creator economy."

To compile the report, Fiverr interviewed ten successful content creators and, based on these interviews, put together a top 10 list of tips for creator economy success.

The ten are:

1. Know the right time to start your own business.
2. Position yourself as a leader, not just a creator/influencer.
3. Find other team members who can help you.
4. Be prepared to handle the ups and downs of the creator economy.
5. Focus on your skills—let experts do the rest.
6. Don't just create for fans—create for yourself, too! 
7. Be prepared to scale your business.
8. Finding the best opportunities in the creator economy.
9. Learn to collaborate with other businesses.
10. A final word of advice.

Our favorites are the teaming tips (3,5, and 9). 

Our research shows that the creator economy is a team sport, and successful creators partner, subcontract, and hire others at much higher rates than most freelancers and solopreneurs. So we agree it's very important for creators to team up with others.

We also like 4 - Be prepared to handle the ups and downs of the creator economy - because there will be ups and downs.

The Fiverr guide provides an excellent set of qualitative research on what it takes to be successful in the creator economy. And while targeted at aspiring content creators, even experienced creators will find the advice useful. 

Why Freelancers Need to Experiment with ChatGPT (and other AIs)

The history of technical innovation is consistent.

Initially, new technologies cause both economic dislocations and new opportunities. But the longer-term net effects of the vast majority of technical innovations are positive due to the creation of new opportunities and jobs.

We think that ChatGPT, and other forms of AI, will follow the same path - at least for the next 5-10 years.   

In other words, AI will create economic winners and losers, but the net economic and job impacts will be positive.  

We've been experimenting with ChatGPT for months and found it improves our productivity, cuts our costs, and frees us to spend more time on value added activities.

Even better, after working with ChatGPT, we're not worried about AI replacing us anytime soon (by that we mean at least for the next 5 years or so). 

The reason is that our work is helping clients discern signals from noise.

And while ChatGPT is great at generating content (noise), it's not good at discerning signals - at least for the kind of work we do.

Like us, many other freelancers will benefit from ChatGPT and AI.  

But there will also be freelancers replaced by AI. 

Workers doing low to medium-skilled knowledge work, especially in content creation, will be at the most risk. AIs will provide the most significant productivity gains in these areas, reducing the demand for freelancers to do this type of work.

We think all freelancers and independent workers should be experimenting with ChatGPT and, if appropriate, other forms of AI. 

The objectives of these experiments are to understand the following:  

1. Can AI can automate some or all of your work?
2. If so, can you use AI to automate some of your work, freeing time to provide additional or higher-value services?  

If the answer to (1) is no, your business is unlikely to be impacted by AI.

If the answer to (1) is yes, and (2) is no, you are at risk of being replaced by AI. You need to figure out how to provide different services or higher-value services.

If the answers are yes to (1) and yes to (2), you have an opportunity to benefit from AI.

The good news is that ChatGPT is a very approachable technology. 

Getting started doesn't require specialized knowledge or training - although getting proficient takes time and practice.  

ChatGPT is a game-changing technology for many jobs and industries.

Freelancers need to understand this technology - and how it will impact their business.  

The End of Dream Jobs Means More independent Workers

Two work and job-related articles jumped out at us recently.

The first is Buzzfeed News' The Fantasy of the Dream Job is Gone covers the growing number of layoffs in tech and finance. Key quote:

Layoffs at some of the country's most prestigious companies are the latest sign that no one's job is ever safe.

The second is Fast Company's From the Great Resignation to the Great Refusal—here's what the 5 'Great Rs' mean for the future of work. Key quote:

We are no longer centered on where we work, but rather on where work fits in our lives, and there is no putting this genie back in the bottle.

Because we study why people choose to be independent workers and small business owners, we spend a lot of time on how workers compare traditional jobs with independent work.

We've found the teeter-totter is a good metaphor for how workers compare and choose between traditional jobs and independent work.  

At a high level, workers choosing between the two balance the security, predictable income, benefits, and career paths of traditional work versus the autonomy, control, and flexibility of working independently.

The recent tech and finance industry layoffs and the massive pandemic-related layoffs have made it clear that no job - and the predictable income and benefits that come with it - is completely secure.

Also, the pandemic accelerated existing trends toward people wanting more flexibility, autonomy, and control over their lives and work.

Both of these shifts make traditional jobs less attractive - tilting worker decisions towards independent work.  This is true even for "dream jobs." 

And this likely means more people will choose independent work, and the recent surge in independent workers will continue.   

Mastercard on the Creator Economy

Mastercard's study - The creator class: How micro business is fueling the next wave of entrepreneurialism - provides an excellent overview of those identifying as digital content creators. Key quote:

Scaling up from a hobbyist to a full-time entrepreneur has never been easier, thanks to democratization around social media, as well as advances in payment technology, Web3 principles, and monetization models. 

We don't know what "Web3 principles" refers to, but we still like the quote - mainly because we agree that scaling a hobby into a business has never been easier.

The report chart below (click to enlarge) shows the primary motivations for becoming a creator. These are consistent with why people give to becoming independent workers or small business owners.

The report covers the challenges creators face. They are not surprising to anyone following the creator economy - burnout, inconsistent income, and lack of control. Key quote from the report:

The pressure to always be creating is intense, as 89% of creators report experiencing burnout. A similarly high percentage feel beholden to algorithms and platforms that are constantly shifting, as 86% of creators feel they do not have control over their content. Financial challenges — from rising costs to inconsistent income streams — are also pervasive for over eight in ten creators.

Our one quibble with the study is that it doesn't actually say how many income-earning creators there are.

The report says there are 22 million content creators in the U.S., but also says "nearly two-thirds of creators envision turning their endeavors into businesses."

This leads us to believe the study found about 7-8 million content creators who consider their content creation activities to be a business, with the rest considering it a hobby or potentially a pre-business.

But that's a minor quibble, and we like the study overall and recommend it to anyone interested in the creator economy.

What is Synthetic Media (Hint: AI is Involved)?

So many new AI buzzwords, so little time.  

"Synthetic media" is media (text, pictures, videos, etc.) that is produced, in whole or part, by some form of AI technology.  

Synthetic media has been around for years. But not surprisingly, the publicity around ChatGPT and generative AI has dramatically increased the creation of synthetic media and the term's usage. 

The NBC News article AI-generated 'synthetic media' is starting to permeate the internet covers the good and bad of synthetic media. Key quote:

"The question some AI researchers say they are grappling with is whether AI-generated content is enhancing internet creativity or squandering it."

The article references the firm UNEEQ, which is "an artificial intelligence company, developing the most advanced autonomous digital human platform available for customer interactions ..." 

Their URL is digitalhumans.com. 

UNEEQ provides "personalized digital humans" designed to be used in customer service and support roles. 

These digital humans are AI chatbots with an AI-generated human as their user interface. These digital human chatbots interact much like humans do.

The picture below shows the digital human Kate answering a support question (the Bot, BTW, looks, acts and talks like a human). 

Generative AI - and ChatGPT in particular - has resulted in a seismic shift in the creation of synthetic media. And expect much, much more in the future.

For example, we used two forms of AI to write this article - ChatGPT helped with the first draft and Grammarly with editing.

And if we can do it, anyone can.  

What is Deinfluencing?

One of the hottest new buzzwords is deinfluencing - a form of online influencing where influencers tell people what not to buy.

TikTok, of course, is where most of the deinfluencing influencing is happening.  As the screen grab from TikTok below shows, the hashtag #deinfluencing recently had 268 million views.  

Time's TikTok's 'De-Influencing' Trend Is Here to Tell You What Stuff You Don't Need to Buy nicely describe the trend. Key quote:

"The growing trend is a direct response to the endless deluge of products that beauty and lifestyle influencers insist you simply must have."

But others have pointed out that most deinfluencers are, well, just influencers with a slightly different message.

Yes, they tell you what not to buy. But they also tell you what to buy instead. 

Key quote from the Financial Times article What de-influencing tells us about the state of the creator economy:

De-influencing is not a rejection of consumerism or social media. You can tell that by the fact that many of the videos follow up negative reviews with suggestions of things their followers should buy instead.

Buzzfeed News' Sorry, But The "Deinfluencing Trend" Is Just ... Influencing says:

Deinfluencing is a fun trend and TikTok buzzword, but the media's embrace of the term illustrates some misconceptions about influencers. It doesn't spell the end of the industry at all — it's just another version of the same thing.

Social media influencers are here to stay.  So is social commerce.  

And deinfluencing is just an evolution in how influencers use their influence to promote commerce.  

AARP: Almost Half of Older Workers are Independent Workers

AARP's Gig Work on the Rise Among Older Adults as Demand for Workplace Flexibility Grows covers the gig economy parts of a broader study AARP conducted on workers who are aged 40+. 

AARP found that independent work is the main job for 27% of American workers aged 40+.

The AARP survey question below explains how they defined gig/independent work:

"Q25: In your current job / main job / most recent job are you an independent contractor, an independent consultant, a gig worker, or a freelancer?"

This is a pretty narrow question. It only covers services and even then leaves out a few independent worker services areas. It also only covers main jobs, leaving out side gigs and second incomes.  

But AARP also asks a broader question that includes non-main job work activities:

"Q29: Please check the box beside each of the ways that you independently earn money on a regular basis."

As the AARP chart below shows (click to enlarge), 48% of workers aged 40+ said they regularly work independently.

Discovering this data point requires careful reading of the small print at the bottom of the slide (highlighted in blue), which says, "52% of respondents reported: I do not earn money independently."  

After some quick math, this means 48% - almost half - of the respondents earn money doing independent work. 

The gig economy data is just a small part of the broader AARP study. This once-every-five-year study looks at the overall attitudes and motivations of working adults ages 40 years.

It's well worth reviewing for anyone interested in older workers.

The impact of Recent Layoffs on Freelancing

Historically, job security has been one of the main attractions of a traditional full-time job.

But research (click on the chart below to enlarge) from the long-running MBO Partners State of Independence study shows a growing share of independent workers believe independent work is more secure than a traditional job. 

The study has also found that the share of traditional jobholders saying independent work is less risky than a traditional job is also growing, increasing from 18% in 2018 to 33% in 2022. 

Put another way, 7 in 10 independents and 1 in 3 traditional employees say independent work is more secure than traditional employment.

And the rash of layoffs in tech is reinforcing this view.  

Two recent articles on this topic caught our eye.

Vox's Tech Workers are Increasingly Taking Contract Jobs covers the recent tech industry layoffs. Key quote:

"Part of what's leading more people to independent work is that regular employment doesn't look so hot right now in certain industries ... All of a sudden, contract work isn't looking so bad."

The article also points out something we often hear in our interviews - because most independent workers have multiple sources of income, they feel more secure than if they were relying on a single employer:

"It's almost like diversifying your stock portfolio," she said. "Instead of working for one company, I'm going to work for several because if one of them doesn't have work, the other ones do."

The Information's Tales from the Shredder: How a Quarter-Million Fired Tech Workers Are Picking Up the Pieces focuses more on the human impact of getting laid off.  

Our favorite quote is from a laid-off tech worker that illustrates the lack of security of traditional jobs:

"They paid us well; they gave us good severance," he said. "But the experience made me feel like I was just a tool. If they need you, they hire you. If they don't need you, they discard you."

The choice between a traditional job and freelancing generally comes down to an evaluation of the pros and cons of each.

And anything that makes traditional jobs less attractive - like a lot of publicity about layoffs - makes freelancing more attractive, and means more workers making a choice will choose freelancing. 

Emergent Research (that's us) works with MBO Partners on the State of Independence study series.

Digital Nomads are Life Goal Champions

Independent workers (freelancers, independent contractors, gig workers, etc.) who are also digital nomads score significantly higher than independent workers in general and workers with traditional jobs in achieving their life goals.

The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the MBO Partners research brief Life Goals: Explore the Great Realization In Depth.

It shows that Independent digital nomads score the highest in 7 of 8 life goal categories. They tie for the highest score in the 8th goal, spending enough time with family.

Digital nomads score exceptionally high on getting the most out of life (79% report achieving this life goal), continued personal growth (74%), and ensuring their life has a purpose (71%).

In addition to scoring high on life goals, independent digital nomads have among the highest work satisfaction rates of all workers. Ninety-two percent of independent digital nomads report being highly satisfied (81%) or satisfied (11%) with their work and lifestyle.

No doubt, visiting new places, being exposed to new cultures, and meeting new people all play a role in these high scores.

Another factor is that most digital nomads report high work/life flexibility, autonomy, and control levels. Our research shows that independent workers who report having work/life flexibility, autonomy and control also report high levels of work satisfaction and happiness. 

See the research brief for more details.

Emergent Research (that's us) worked with MBO Partners on this study.

What are DINKWADs?

Regular readers know that two of our favorite topics here at Small Business Labs are new buzzwords and pet trends.

So we had to cover DINKWADs, a new to us buzzword.  

It stands for "dual income, no kids, with a dog."  

DINKs is an old buzzword. It was coined when yuppies (a 1980s buzzword for young urban professionals) started pairing up.   

DINKWADs adds, "with a dog."

The Insider's Meet the DINKWADs: The TikTok legion making everyone jealous with their double incomes, no kids, and a dog covers this new acronym and trend. Key quote:

"The allure of the DINKWAD lifestyle is solely based on financial and personal freedom from any responsibility," Ahmed said. Instead, Benfield and Ahmed love to travel and are both passionate about not having children. They have a beloved rescue mutt named Yvie instead."

The same type of quote appeared in the old DINK stories, but without the mention of dogs.

But since the acronym DINK was coined, the trend toward pet humanization has dramatically accelerated.

And now, pets - and especially dogs - have become viewed as family members and kid substitutes. 

And you can pridefully show you're a DINKWAD by wearing a DINKWAD t-shirt (available from Etsy).

We cover trends like this because declining birthrates have significant, long-term economic and social impacts.

Key quote from our article U.S. Birthrate Hits Another All-time Low:

"Declining fertility and birth rates have enormous social and economic implications. They lead to reduced economic growth, make it harder to pay for social programs (especially social security and Medicare) and cause economic dislocations due to changing demand patterns."

See our Demographics and Pet Trends sections for more on this topic.

Gig Economy Doctors

Locum tenens - "one holding a place" in Medieval Latin - is the healthcare industry's term for doctors, nurses, and other caregivers working in temporary roles.  

It's also the name of a temp staffing firm that places doctors and other healthcare professionals at hospitals and other healthcare facilities.

The company LocumTenens recently released The Future of Work: Redefining the Role of Physicians in the Gig Economy. 

As the study chart below illustrates (click to enlarge), 73% of doctors surveyed said they would be interested in local contract work, and 63% said they would be interested in a contract position that required travel.

The reasons doctors are interested in gig work are pretty much the same as others who say they are interested in gig work - better work/life balance and more flexibility, autonomy, and control.

And just as the pandemic has many questioning the role work plays in their lives, so are doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals.   

Key quote from healthcare consulting firm Oliver Wyman's HEALTHCARE WORKERS MOVING TO GIG WORK IN RECORD NUMBERS:

"COVID-19 has battered the healthcare workforce. Historically known for their resilience, the pandemic has left doctors, nurses, and other front-line workers not just exhausted, but bitter, traumatized, and questioning their passion and commitment to a calling they once loved. In search of greater work-life balance and mental wellbeing, many are considering major changes to their work-life, from moving to gig work to leaving the profession altogether ..."

One of Oliver Wyman's recommendations to hospital executives is "strategically utilize gig workers".  

We think they will accept this advice, and the healthcare industry will see steady increases in the number of gig doctors in the coming years.  

Independent Workers and Their Life Goals

Since the pandemic, people have been reevaluating work's role in their lives. And for many, work-life balance, the ability to pursue passions, and health and wellness are taking center stage as top priorities.

MBO Partners' study Life Goals: Exploring the Great Realization in Depth explores the life goals of independent workers (freelancers, gig workers, self-employed, etc.) and how successful they are at achieving them.

The key finding of this study is that independent workers outperform traditional jobholders in achieving their life goals.

The study chart below (click to enlarge) illustrates the top 3 life goals reported by a survey of traditional and independent workers.

As the chart shows, independent workers outperform traditional workers in all 3 of the top categories.

Independent workers scored higher in all areas except financial goals. They scored lower than traditional workers in earning a steady income and being on track for retirement.  

Interestingly, they scored statistically the same for the goal of creating wealth. This is likely due to both types of workers scoring low on this achieving this goal.

One goal that caught our attention was continued personal growth. Almost two-thirds (64%) of independent workers reported achieving this goal versus 54% of traditional workers.

Based on our interviews with independent workers, the need to continue to upskill and adapt to changing demand associated with independent work is likely why independents score higher in this area.

Of course, not all independent workers are successful at achieving their life goals.

The study found that about one-third of independent workers score poorly regarding life goal achievement. In most cases, this group reports not having the work/life flexibility, autonomy, and control that more successful independent workers have.

MBO Partners collaborated with future of work expert Connie Steele and her firm, Flywheel Associates, on this study. Flywheel Associates provided input, guidance, and survey questions from their annual State of Work and Career Success study.

Emergent Research (that's us) also collaborated on this study.

See the report for more information.  

The Lifestyle Employment Contract Versus Freelancing

Mercer's study, Rethinking what we need from work, found that "employees are more focused on securing their financial, physical, and emotional health and well-being than by achievement and climbing the ladder."

Because of this, they are proposing firms shift to a lifestyle contract to attract and retain talent (click on the Mercer report chart below to enlarge).

The new contract suggests 6 areas employers should focus on if they want to win the war for talent:

1. Step up efforts on retention
2. Align to shifting workforce needs
3. Focus on financial health
4. Reimagine well-being at work
5. Accelerate diversity, equity, and inclusion
6. Build a more flexible future

When you look under the hood at most of these areas, Mercer suggests employers offer greater work flexibility, autonomy, and control.  

These are, of course, key reasons workers choose to pursue independent work and freelancing.  

We've long viewed the choice between having a traditional job and freelancing as a competition.  

And most traditional jobs offer much less work flexibility, autonomy, and control than freelancing does. And we've long wondered why more firms don't provide at least some of the flexibility, autonomy, and control freelancing offers.  

And perhaps, they will.  

One of Mercer's focus areas, financial health, is where traditional employment has always had an advantage over independent work.

And because of this, it's a good area for employers to double down on in their competition with freelancing for talent (and their competition with other firms).  

Before the pandemic, we were seeing a trend of employers offering more flexibility, greater work/life balance, higher pay, and better overall financial support.

However, there is much talk - especially in the tech industry - about cutting back on these changes. And if we have a recession, there will be more talk.

Our hope is that more companies will adopt some form of the lifestyle employee contract.

Either way, we think the appeal of freelancing and independent work will be sufficient for their numbers to continue to grow.

Skift's Travel Industry Megatrends

Skift is a travel industry analyst firm and one of our favorite sources on travel trends. Much of their content is behind a paywall, but they also produce free content (we subscribe to several of their newsletters).  

We follow travel trends because of our interest in remote work and digital nomads. We're also active travelers, so we like travel trends.  

They recently released their 2023 Travel Megatrends report. It covers 22 travel and travel industry trends.

Two trends jumped out at us. 

Blended Travel Comes of Age covers the growth of travel that includes work and leisure. Key quote:

"The pandemic has led to a permanent change in how we live our lives between work and the personal. No longer just a trite category called "bleisure," the idea of blended traveling is front and center for every major travel company now. How new strategies focused on the blended traveler will emerge more clearly in 2023, as the industry recognizes the whole traveler holistically." 

As the Skift chart below shows (click to enlarge), the share of business travel that includes a weekend has increased substantially since the start of the pandemic.

Because of the growth of blended travel, the entire travel industry is trying to figure out how to serve this market segment better.

The other trend that caught our eye is The Anywhere Traveler Puts New Destinations on the Map. Key quote:

"Millennials now surpass Boomers as the largest sector of the U.S. population, giving rise to a new class of "anywhere travelers." This group has a strong passion for experiences that take them to less obvious destinations. These habits, in their own way a new form of balancing overtourism, will put new destinations in focus."

We like this trend for several reasons.  

First, It illustrates one set of impacts due to the aging of baby boomers. Aging boomers will have many economic and societal impacts, and these, in our opinion, are being underestimated.

And second, the Anywhere Traveler will increasingly be a remote worker or digital nomad.  

The other 20 trends are also interesting, and the report is well worth reading for anyone interested in shifts and trends.

Digital Nomad Programs for Families

Digital nomads traveling with children are not unheard of. But because of the challenges of traveling long-term with kids, there are relatively few digital nomad families.  

That's why we found The Florentine's Digital nomad community Boundless Life expands to Tuscany. It covers the firm Boundless Life, which describes itself as "Your family's complete solution to living around the world."

This includes, according to Boundless Life, "Forward-thinking education, furnished homes, coworking space and a wonderful community of like-minded families."

Their education program jumped out at us.  

As far as we know, they're the only organization that provides schooling for kids (ages 1-12) as part of their remote work/digital nomad service offering.  

Boundless Life offers 3-month summer and 6-month programs in Portugal, Greece, and Italy. The picture below (click to enlarge) is from their website. It provides more details on their locations.

The schools are taught in English, with the programs based on the Finnish curriculum, which Boundless Life describes as "world-renowned." Not knowing anything about Finnish schools, we checked with several local school officials. They confirmed that Finnish schools are highly regarded.  

Boundless Life is another example of the rapidly growing array of programs and services targeted at digital nomads.  

These services aim to reduce the challenges associated with being a digital nomad. This makes it easier to become a digital nomad - which is what Boundless Life does for nomads with kids.

The growth of these services is one of the reasons we are forecasting the number of digital nomads to continue to grow over the next 2-3 years.  

See our Digital Nomad section for more on this topic.