Small Business Labs

The Surge in New Small Business Applications

Applications to get a tax ID as part of starting a business jumped a dramatic 77% in Q3 from the prior quarter. 

This was the largest increase ever in business applications - and there's nothing even close.

As the U.S. Census chart below shows (click to enlarge), both solopreneur business applications (referred to as "Applications Other than High-Propensity") and High-Propensity Business Applications (those indicating they are planning on hiring employees) significantly increased in number. 

An interesting aspect of this data is the difference between the current surge compared to the slight uptick in applications during the last recession (2008-2009).  

There are several likely reasons for this surge.  

First, it's much easier and cheaper to start a small/solopreneur business than it used to be.  This is especially true for gig economy businesses. 

Another reason is that the CARES Act stimulus started running out in late Q2, which meant the 30 million Americans relying on the added benefits needed to find alternative income sources.

A third reason, which comes from our interviews, is that many people see starting a small/solopreneur business as a better post-COIVD option than returning to a traditional job.  

The business applications data comes from IRS Employment Identification Numbers (EIN) applications.  EIN's are the tax id number that identifies a business.  Not all small/solopreneur businesses have EINs. Some, and especially independent workers working part-time, use their social security numbers instead.  But almost all employer businesses have EINs.  

An important point to note is that not all EIN applications result in a small business being started.  Census data shows around 15% of EIN applications lead to a small/solopreneur business being started over the following  2 years.

Our research on small business formation shows about 9% of those who say in surveys they plan to start a small/solopreneur business over the next 2-3 years in our surveys end up doing so. 

We've also found that people who have applied for an EIN and opened a business bank account are much more likely to follow through and start a business, with about 18% of those doing so.  So our data is pretty consistent with the Census.

It's too early to know if this surge is a one-time event, or whether it signals a substantial uptick in small/solopreneur business formation going forward.  

We are forecasting an increase in the number of small and solopreneur businesses post-COVID, but nowhere near Q3's 77% increase.

We'll have more on our forecast in the near future.

TechCrunch's 5 Startup Trends for the 2020s

TechCrunch's 5 startup theses that will transform the 2020s looks at 5 broad startup themes that will define the next decade. 

These are:

1.  Wellness: TechCrunch defines wellness more broadly than most.  They say it encompasses building "... humanistic societies with strong social fabrics that enliven, enrich, and build meaning for our lives …". More concrete is their view on the needs of our health system.  Key quote:

Then there’s the health system in general. While America deservedly receives huge criticism for its overpriced and under-insured system, health systems worldwide face incredible pressures to improve efficiency. How do we make care better, more personalized, and more open? How do we reduce costs while ensuring that care is accurate and delivered expeditiously? There is huge work to be done to make health a key component.

To increase wellness for individuals, we need to increase wellness for our societies, building systems that are designed for the humans that inhabit them. Flexibility with security, engagement with individuality, expression with support. Our existing systems are already antiquated — and we haven’t come up with anything better.

2.  Climate: Again, they take a broad approach and include everything from infrastructure to food to the need for greater resiliency due to climate change.  

3.  Data Society: The key quote sums up this one:

Remember when data was the new oil? Well, we now have so much data that it is all effectively worthless (supply and demand always seem to show up, don’t they?) While enterprise data infrastructure has improved at least the management of these databases, it’s still amazing how little data enriches our decisions, offers new avenues for analysis, and quite frankly, just makes our lives better on a day-to-day basis.

We find this interesting because we've worked on multiple data analytics and data driven AI projects with our clients, some of which are leading edge users of AI technologies. 

And because of this experience, we agree much more needs to be done to make the analysis of big data truly useful.  

4. Creativity:  We consider this the most interesting of the five.  Key quote from the article:

Creativity has never been more important, nor frankly less valued … How do we empower more creative arts and ensure that artists (very broadly conceived) have the income, time, and support they need to contribute original art to our global discourse? 

We would add increasing creativity in all aspects of business will also be key to improving both business performance and society over the next decade.

5. Fundamentals:  This is about improving our basic R&D capabilities.  Key quote:

We need a massive infusion of new ideas around how to build the best engine for fundamental research and discovery.

We follow startup trends because they've proven to be useful signals on the future of technology.  

We've quoted more liberally from the article than we usually do because it's an Extra Crunch article and behind a paywall.  We're happy Extra Crunch subscribers and think those interested in startups and tech trends will find it well worth the $99 annual price tag.

We're also hoping by plugging their service TechCrunch won't be mad at us for the extensive reprinting of their article.

The Broader Impacts of Prop 22 Passing in a Landslide

Proposition 22, a California ballot measure calling for the exemption of rideshare and delivery drivers being classified as employees, passed by what could be called a landslide - 58% for vs. 41% against. 

Prop 22 passing is a major win for Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and other app-based rideshare and delivery firms. 

It means they won't have to reclassify their drivers as employees, which would have been required had the measure failed.

But as CNBC's What Uber, Lyft Prop 22 win could mean for the future of all freelance work points out, Prop 22 passing has broader impacts.  Key quote:

Independent contractors across the country might breathe a sigh of relief in that California voters sent a message to the state’s legislators that AB 5, the law which was enacted to classify freelancers as employees, is widely unpopular. Other states, including New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York and Illinois, have been among those considering crafting legislation to force companies to deem freelancers as employees. Now those states can more clearly see the risks, experts say.

Worker classification is another issue that is handled very differently by blue and red states.  Blue states tend to have stricter laws requiring workers classified as traditional employees than red states.  

And since California is one of the bluest of blue states, Prop 22 passing by such a large margin will very much be noticed by elected officials of other states - and also at the Federal level. 

Key quote on the broader impact from CNN's Prop 22 passes in California, exempting Uber and Lyft from classifying drivers as employees:

Robert Reich, a public policy professor at UC Berkeley and former Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration who endorsed a No vote, told CNN Business last week that the outcome of the vote will be "very significant."

 

"Uber and Lyft figure if they win in California they can win political fights in the rest of the states, and probably Congress," said Reich in an e-mail.

 

Prop 22 passing is hardly the end of the political and legal wrangling around the gig economy and freelance worker classification.  To paraphrase Churchill, it's probably not even the beginning of the end of these battles.

 

But perhaps it's the beginning of a process that results in well thought out legislation that clearly defines who is, and is not, and independent contractor.  

 

The articles listed above nicely cover the potential broader impacts of Prop 22 passing, so we won't bother repeating them.  See them for more details.

The Wannabe Digital Nomads

One of the more interesting findings of the MBO Partners 2020 Digital Nomad study is the large number of Americans who aren't currently digital nomads who say they want to be.

Key quote from Bloomberg's When You Can’t Work From Barcelona, Boulder Might Do, which covers the study:

"... there is a massive and growing reserve army of digital-nomad wannabes — people who tell the survey-takers they’re planning on going nomadic in the next two or three years, or at least thinking about it."

The chart below, also from the Bloomberg article, shows that 19 million Americans say they plan to become digital while another 45 million say they are considering it.

As the article points out, we call these wannabes "armchair digital nomads" because most will not follow through and become digital nomads.  

Instead, they will follow digital nomads on social media and treat the trend almost as a spectator sport.  But the large number of wannabes shows there is a lot of interest in digital nomadism.

In our work we've learned survey questions asking aspiration questions or questions on hot topics often result in a large number of false positives.  And the huge number of people saying they are going to become digital nomads is a good example.

Another example is asking people if they're going to start a business.  We've found only about 9% of those who say in surveys they will be starting a new small business over the next 2-3 actually do so.

We don't yet know how many wannabe digital nomads will follow through and become one - there isn't enough historical data to make an estimate.  But if even a small percentage of the wannabes follow through and become digital nomads,  it will be enough to keep the trend growing.

Emergent Research worked with MBO Partners on this study.

Academic Studies Show Gig Work Increases Entrepreneurship and Acts as a Safety Net

Two recent academic studies illustrate several of the benefits of the gig economy. 

The University of Chicago Booth Review article Does the gig economy promote entrepreneurship? covers a study showing that gig economy employment helps people make the leap to entrepreneurship and start their own businesses. 

Key quote:

Gig work may encourage the formation of new businesses by giving potential entrepreneurs a way to supplement their income during the lean times that many new ventures experience, the researchers explain. And if these entrepreneurs start a business and it fails, gig work gives them something to fall back on.

MIT Management's How the gig economy can reduce unemployment and debt reports on a study showing how the gig economy can act as a safety net.  Key qutoe:

A new working paper by John Nickerson, a visiting professor at MIT Sloan, presents a compelling picture of how the gig economy may alleviate situations like this, dampening demand for unemployment insurance while reducing both credit card debt and delinquency rates. 

These advantages of the low friction, highly flexible work the gig economy provides are something we've long covered.   

The gig economy gets a lot of criticism.  But it's clear from a growing list of studies that gig work is beneficial for a lot of people.

The U.S. Has 1.7 Million VanLifers

VanLifers are people who travel, work and live on the road in vans, RVs, and other vehicles. 

And according to the recently released MBO Partners research study on digital nomads, there are about 1.7 million VanLifers roaming the country. Emergent Research (that's us) worked with MBO Partners on this study. 

VanLife, which is a subset of the broader digital nomad trend, has been popularized in part by millions of #VanLife posts on Instagram, Pinterest, Facebook, and Twitter.  

These posts tend to show pictures of young, adventurous, photogenic millennials - often with adorable dogs - enjoying the great outdoors in beautiful places.

For example, the picture below is from the blog of the #VanLife Hearnes family and shows them having fun while touring Utah with their dogs.

You can also find all sorts of pictures on social media of VanLifers doing yoga on the beach or next to a mountain.  

But the VanLife movement is much broader with all age groups participating, including aging baby boomers living, working, and traveling in RVs. 

Although 2020 was the 3rd year of MBO Partners' ongoing digital nomad study, it was the first year specific survey questions on VanLifers were included.  So there's no historical data to compare the numbers with.

But we're sure they increased substantially this year as COVID-19 has resulted in digital nomads staying closer to home (see last week's post on the study for more details). 

One indicator of the growing interest in VanLife is Van manufacturers have noticed.  

Business Insiders RV makers are rushing to cater to the new 'work from anywhere' crowd as the pandemic continues to force people to rethink their lives covers the surge in demand for RVs and Vans. Key quote:

"Many RV, camper van, and travel trailer makers have started catering their road travel builds to accommodate the rising popularity of digital nomads and "work from anywhere" crowd amid the pandemic."

The VanLife is a trend that has been accelerated and amplified by the pandemic.

We believe post-COVID the shift to work from anywhere and hybrid work models will result in the continued growth in the number of VanLifers over the next few years.

Digital Nomad Numbers Skyrocket Thanks to Work From Anywhere

The number of U.S. digital nomads grew from 7.3 million in 2019 to 10.9 million in 2020, a 49% increase.

This data comes from COVID-19 and the Rise of the Digital Nomad, which is the report on the third year of an ongoing research series on digital nomads conducted by MBO Partners.

Emergent Research (that's us) works with MBO Partners on these studies.

The increase is driven by the unleashing of traditional employees due to the shift to work from anywhere policies caused by the pandemic. 

As the report chart below shows, the number of digital nomads with traditional jobs roughly doubled from 2019 to 2020.

Over the same timeframe, the number of independent workers reporting they are digital nomads increased by a relatively modest 12%.  

Independent workers had substantially more location freedom than traditional employees prior to the pandemic, so the impact of COVID-19 on where they worked was much less pronounced.

COVID-19 has also changed what it means to be a digital nomad.  Key quote from the report:

International flight and travel restrictions have made it harder to travel abroad, while health and healthcare concerns have also made travel less attractive. Because of this, only 1 out of 4 (24 percent) American digital nomads said they plan to travel internationally over the next year.

Instead, a resounding majority (76 percent) of American digital nomads are exploring the U.S. Most (52 percent) are also reporting they plan on visiting fewer locations but spending more time at each stop, which is consistent with trends in the travel industry as a whole. Relatedly, 41 percent report they are spending less time traveling. And 40 percent report that, while they are traveling, they tend to stay closer to home to be near family and healthcare providers.

Going forward, we expect continued growth in the number of digital nomads.  The shift to remote work and work from anywhere will allow more traditional employees to pursue their passion for travel.  

We also expect digital nomads to return to international travel once the pandemic over.  The interest in travel and experiencing new places and cultures is simply too strong for this not to happen.

We'll have more on digital nomads and the findings from this study in the near future.

3D Printing 2.0

Desktop Metal, a leader in 3D printing with printers than can build metal parts, is going public. 

Supporters of the company claim this is the beginning of a much more successful era for 3D printing, which they're calling 3D printing 2.0.

As the Crunchbase article 3D Printing Investment Going Vertical As Big Exit Looms points out, 3D printing has been around a long time and, so far, has not lived up to its hype.  Key quote:

Transformative technologies often get massively overhyped at the early stage. In the case of 3D printing, the breakout moment was supposed to be 2012, when a new generation of desktop 3D machines hit shelves. Soon, they were to be nearly as commonplace as smartphones.

Needless to say, that futuristic vision didn’t pan out.

But as we pointed out in our 2017 article 3D Printing Moving Past Prototyping to Large Batch Manufacturing, even in 2017 3D printing had become an important vertical market manufacturing technology. 

The reasons supporter of 3D printing claim it's turned the corner and will quickly expand are fairly straight forward.  They say the technology has reached the point where it can effectively compete with traditional large scale manufacturing systems.  And systems like Desktop Metal's that allow the printing of metal parts greatly expands the market.

3D printing is actively used in a lot of industries to manufacture things.  Again, from the Crunchbase article:

From jet engine parts to teeth straighteners to lab-grown chicken nuggets, startups and established manufacturers alike rely on the technology to create new products and add efficiency and customization to production of existing ones.

And everyone is forecasting that 3D printing will continue to grow rapidly.

The phrase "this time it's different" is well known as the phrase most likely to be wrong when used in forecasting.  

But sometimes this time really is different.  And after many false starts, this appears to be true for 3D printing.

Work is Going Hybrid and it Will Have Major Economic and Societal Impacts

CNBC's JPMorgan will have staff cycle between office and remote work in a move that may remake Wall Street covers a plan by the bank to institute a rotational work location model that includes in-person and remote work. 

Key quote:

“We are going to start implementing the model that I believe will be more or less permanent, which is this rotational model,” Pinto told CNBC in a Zoom call from London, where he is based. “Depending on the type of business, you may be working one week a month from home, or two days a week from home, or two weeks a month.”JP Morgan isn't the only company planning on this.

According to a survey by the HR consulting firm Mercer, 73% of the firms surveyed plan to implement a hybrid work environment that includes both in-office and remote work.

And a Gartner study found that 82% of executives surveyed plan on allowing employees to work remotely at least some of the time. 

They are doing this, at least in part, because although most employees don't want to return to the office full-time, most want to return to the office at least some of the time.

Most companies also want employees to show up at the office at least some of the time.  They think it improves cultural, social cohesion, teamwork and innovation.  

So both employees and employers are saying they prefer the hybrid model.  

Axios also covers this topic in their article Remote Work Won't Kill Your Office.  Key quote:

The big picture: Since the onset of pandemic-induced telework, companies have oscillated between can't-wait-to-go-back and work-from-home-forever. Now, it's becoming increasingly clear that the future of work will land somewhere in the middle — a remote/in-person hybrid.

Surveys conducted in the six months since most people started working from home show that less than 10% of Americans actually want to work remotely all the time, according to a new Barclays analysis.

So it looks like the hybrid model is going to be the winner, at least over the next few years.  

If this happens, it will have major economic and societal impacts due to dislocations caused by changing commuter patterns and shifts in where people choose to live.

Urban centers will most likely be impacted the most due to the decreased number of workers commuting to city center offices. They will also see residents leave for cheaper places with more space.  

Suburbs will benefit due to existing suburbanites spending more time and money in their communities. 

Suburbs will also see an increase in new residents, due to people leaving the cities in search of lower costs and more space. But many of these workers will still need to be in commuting distance since a hybrid model means going to the office on a somewhat regular basis.

Smaller cities will also likely benefit because a large number of people will likely have enough flexibility to move even farther away from the office. 

The chart below, from LinkedIn's article So long big city! Handling a pandemic often means calling the movers shows these shifts are already happening.  

We're not at all suggesting the death of urban centers.  Many will still find them attractive places to live and a lot of people will continue to work in them.

But the remote work shift is going to have major social and economic impacts and we're still a long way from understanding what these will be.

Slow Travel, VanLife and Digital Nomads

Marriott's Taking Pause: How Slow Travel Is Changing the Way We Explore takes a look at the "slow travel" trend.

Slow travel, which is considered an offshoot of the slow food movement, focuses on spending more time in fewer places.  

Instead of attempting to squeeze as many sights or cities as possible into their trips, the slow traveler explores a destination and experiences the local culture. 

The slow travel trend has been around for years, but prior to the COVID-19, it attracted relatively little attention. 

The pandemic has changed this.

Due to travel restrictions and health concerns, slow travel is in vogue - especially with the large group of workers who can now "work from anywhere" thanks to the pandemic.

The new slow travelers like the less frenetic pace associated with longer stays. They also report being more productive workwise when they travel less.  

Van manufacturers have noticed.  

Business Insiders RV makers are rushing to cater to the new 'work from anywhere' crowd as the pandemic continues to force people to rethink their lives covers their surge in demand for RVs and Vans. Key quote:

"Many RV, camper van, and travel trailer makers have started catering their road travel builds to accommodate the rising popularity of digital nomads and "work from anywhere" crowd amid the pandemic."

We'll be publishing more detailed data on the boom in digital nomads and #VanLifers soon. But the quick summary is lots of people have taken to the road since the pandemic started.  This is especially true for those with traditional jobs who can now work from anywhere.

The K-Shaped - and Swoosh-Shaped - Recovery

There's much talk these days about a K-shaped recovery. This is a recovery where professionals and those with higher wealth and income are hurt less by the recession and recover more quickly than moderate and low-income Americans.

The K-shape is driven, in part, because industries that employ high percentages of low and moderate wage jobs are not recovering as quickly as other industries.

The chart below is from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce article The K-Shaped Recovery and the Cost of Inaction.  Key quote:

"Long gone is the notion that we’ll have a V-Shaped Recovery—a deep economic decline followed quickly by a sharp rebound. Instead, what we’re looking at is a recovery that will be vigorous for some sectors while others remain in freefall."

The Chamber article illustrates this by pointing out that "the financial services sector, for example, has already recovered 94% of its pre-pandemic employment. Leisure and entertainment, on the other hand, has only brought back 74% of the workforce."

Another factor is remote work. A much higher share of high wage jobs can be done remotely than low wage jobs. This has resulted in much higher levels of unemployment among low wage workers.

Cutting the data by income reinforces the idea of a K-shaped recession.

According to an NPR survey and covered in their article Nearly Half Of U.S. Households Face A Financial Crisis 54% of those with household incomes below $100,000 reported serious financial problems due to the pandemic, compared with only 20% of those with incomes above that threshold.

And, of course, the stock market's recovery heavily favors the wealthier.  The top 1% of Americans in terms of wealth own over half of all stocks and mutual funds and the top 10% own about 87%. 

That doesn't leave a lot for the other 90%.

Recessions have always increased economic inequality and hurt the wealthy less than those with low and moderate-incomes.  

But this one seems particularly hard on the low to moderate-income group.  

In terms of the recovery's shape, we think it will be both a swoosh and K-shaped.  One reason it will be both is the k-shaped jobs and industry recovery will keep the overall economy from fully recovering quickly. 

We think the economy will get to 90%-95% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year, but the last %%-10% - which are big percentages in terms of the economy - will take much longer. 

Unfortunately for the small business sector, it over indexes in industries that are not recovering quickly.  This is one reason we continue to forecast that a large number of small businesses will close this year.  

Most Want to Return to the Office, at Least Part-Time

A recent study by Colliers, a global real estate services company, found that 83% of those working from home due to COVID-19 would prefer to continue doing so after the pandemic ends.

As the study chart below shows (click to enlarge), 45% said they'd like to work from home 1-2 days per week.

Only 15% said they'd like to work from home full time.

Other studies have similar results.  A study by PWC, for example, found that 72%  say they’d like to work away from the office for at least two days a week post-pandemic. 

The Colliers study includes an interesting chart (see below and click to enlarge) showing what people miss about being in the office.

The top reasons tend to be related to social interactions.  This is not a surprise.  Loneliness is consistently listed as one of the top challenges associated with remote work.

It's clear that remote work will grow in the future.

But it likely will be a hybrid model with most employees splitting their time between home and the workplace.  

Study Finds Most Rideshare Drivers Want to be Independent Contractors

A recent survey shows that most rideshare drivers prefer being independent contractors instead of employees, including a slight majority of full-time drivers.

The study was sponsored by Uber (we'll get to that later) and conducted by two political consulting firms, one that leans Democratic and one that leans Republican.  Key quote from the report on the two firms and their work:

"Uber engaged two independent and well-respected research firms, Democratic-leaning Benenson Strategy Group and Republican-leaning GS Strategy Group to come together in a bi-partisan independent research project to explore the needs and concerns of app-based Drivers ..."

The study's key finding is that 64% of drivers report they prefer being independent contractors, with 24% saying they would prefer being a traditional W2 employee. The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the detailed study results report.

And as the study chart below shows (click to enlarge), a key reason most drivers prefer being an independent contractor is the flexibility it provides.  

This, of course, is no surprise to anyone following this topic. 

Almost every independent worker and/or rideshare driver study that has a representative sample we've seen shows that flexibility is a key reason people prefer being an independent worker.  And we've been at this a long time and have seen hundreds of studies.  Browse through our independent worker section to see many examples.

This study was sponsored by Uber, which means those opposed to Uber and drivers' classification as independent workers will attack it because of their involvement. We understand that having a corporate sponsor can lead to bias.

But in this case, the research firms released their full question set and answers.  This means you can dig through the questions and data and look for bias.  We did this and found that overall the study and survey questions were well constructed and methodologically sound. 

However, we found several cases of leading questions where the phrasing likely influenced the survey takers' responses. The study's agree/disagree questions also used a 4 point scale, which tends to inflate both positive and negative responses compared to a 5 point scale.

But as you can see from the chart above, the key study question on whether or not drivers want to be employees or contractors used a 5 point scale.  

We also found leading questions that both benefited Uber and went against them.  So at least in our opinion, the leading question and scale issues balanced out. 

Add in the fact that the study findings are consistent with almost every study done on this topic (including ours), and it's hard to argue the study is biased.

But a long time rule of PR is if you can't attack the message, attack the messenger.  In the case of studies, this translates to if you can't attack the study methods or results, attack the researchers and/or the research backers.  

So expect this study and its results to be attacked because Uber was involved.  

Braintrust - a Coop Online Freelance Talent Marketplace

Braintrust is a new entrant in the online talent marketplace space, but with a twist. 

Instead of being owned by investors and founders, Braintrust is a non-profit and the founders say it will be user-controlled by their talent.  

In other words, Braintrust is a coop, which is a business owned and controlled by the freelancers that they serve. 

Braintrust focuses on high-end IT projects and works with an impressive list of large corporations.  According to the company, their clients include Deloitte, Nestle, Netflix, Nike, Four Seasons, and Task Rabbit, NASA, Porsche, PWC, and Pacific Life. 

They also (naturally) have a blockchain and cyber token angle. 

Freelancers using the site will be issued tokens in exchange for working on the site or bringing new talent or clients to the site.  These tokens equate to voting rights on Braintrust's corporate actions and decisions.  This is how power will be distributed to the workers.  

Braintrust argues that by being a coop, their freelancers will earn more and have better control over their work than they would using a traditional for-profit marketplace.  

Establishing a coop online talent marketplace is not a new idea.  In 2014- 2015 the concept of "platform cooperatisim" was widely discussed in sharing economy circles.  

Shareable's 2016 story How Platform Coops Can Beat Death Stars Like Uber to Create a Real Sharing Economy nicely covered the topic.

It pointed out at that time a number of online talent marketplace coops existed.   These included New Zealand's Ensprial, a cooperatively owned and operated freelancer network, and Loconomics, a now-defunct (at least in the U.S.) coop version of Task Rabbit.

And, like Braintrust, the article argued that coops would provide workers with more income and control.  But 4 years later, coops haven't made a dent in the online talent marketplace industry.

But many great ideas and business concepts fail a couple of times before succeeding.  Maybe the same thing will be true with coop online labor platforms.

We hope so. Alternatives are always good, especially ones that are worker-friendly.

For those who want to learn more, Harvard Business School's Future of Work project has an excellent podcast interview with the founders of Braintrust.

The Rise of Synthetic Biology (and Synthetic Biology Platforms)

According to the National Human Genome Research Institute synthetic biology is:

"... a field of science that involves redesigning organisms for useful purposes by engineering them to have new abilities. Synthetic biology researchers and companies around the world are harnessing the power of nature to solve problems in medicine, manufacturing and agriculture."

Synthetic biology is not a new trend. About a decade ago it was hailed as the next big thing.  But like so many technologies, it's taken a while for the reality to catch up to the early hype.

But a number of new bioengineering technologies and advances, and especially CRISPR, are enabling a wave of new synthetic biology products and companies. 

Tech Crunch's Synthetic biology startups are giving investors an appetite reports on this trend.  Key quote:

"There’s a growing wave of commercial activity from companies that are creating products using new biological engineering technologies."

The best known synthetic biology company is probably Impossible Foods. 

They use plants and bioengineered additives to create plant-based food that looks and tastes like meat. 

But the TechCrunch article mentions several other examples, with our favorite being Pivot Bio.

They are creating self-fertilizing cereal crops like corn, wheat and rice.  This would eliminate the need for nitrogen fertilizers, which are major global pollutants. 

Another interesting example is Bolt Threads. Among other things, they are creating a synthetic alternative to silk using the same proteins as spiders use.

And, not surprisingly, there are synthetic biology platform companies helping to build the industry.  Another quote from the TechCrunch article:

"Platform companies like Ginkgo Bioworks  and Zymergen have large libraries of metagenomic data that can be applied to products like industrial chemicals, coatings and films, pesticides and new ways to deliver nutrients to consumers."

Both of these firms already have multi-billion dollar valuations.

There's little doubt that, at some point, synthetic biology will fundamentally change the world.  And it's starting to happen.  

The Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey is Back and Shows the Pandemic is Still Taking A Toll on SMBs

The U.S. Census started a COVID-19 impact survey back in April to measure how the pandemic was impacting small businesses.  The weekly surveys ran until the end of June.

Unfortunately, the pandemic wasn't over by then.  But after skipping 6 weeks, they're back with what they are calling phase 2 of the surveys.

Things haven't improved much over the 6-week layoff according to the small businesses surveyed - 34% of the respondents said the pandemic has had a large negative effect on their business and 45% said it a moderate negative effect.  Only 6% said it had a positive effect.

More interesting, 11% said in the week prior to the survey they had decreased the number of employees at their firm and only 7% said the number of employees had increased.   

The combination of only 7% saying they increased employment coupled with 11% saying it decreased shows the economy is still struggling. 

The Census added a new question in phase 2 asking whether or not small businesses had increased their use of online platforms and marketplaces since the beginning of the pandemic.

As the Census chart below (click to enlarge) shows, only 25% of the SMBs surveyed said they increased their use of online platforms, while 35% said they had not increased their use. 45% said they didn't use online platforms in their business.  

This surprised us a bit.  Other surveys have shown a greater share of SMBs increasing their use of online platforms.  Since it's only one week's worth of data, we'll continue watching this to see if these numbers change.

The pulse survey is well worth following.  The Census even provides some simply analysis and visualization tools so you can play with data and/or track it over time.

The 2nd phase of this survey will run through October 15th.  We suspect, unfortunately, that there will be a third phase. 

3D Printer Homebuilder Raises $35 Million

Iconn, a developer of advanced construction technologies, recently raised $35 million. They're best known for their giant 3D printer that builds houses and other structures.

So far Iconn has mostly worked with non-profits on affordable housing in Mexico and other locations.  But they've also built the first permitted 3D printed house in the U.S. (pictured below). 

They have a big vision, which is disrupting the way houses and buildings are built.  Key quote from the VC investing in Iconn:

“I believe we will see an evolution of the entire home-buying value chain, especially when integrated with other technologies like digital transactions and augmented reality,” Constance Freedman, founder and managing partner at Moderne Ventures, said in a statement. “Consumers will be able to order, build, design and purchase a brand-new home in a matter of days — something that is truly innovative and truly disruptive.”

The video below shows Iconn's 3D printer in action and being used by a group of U.S. Marines to quickly build a storage facility. 

We've long covered the ups and downs of the 3D printer industry.  And while there are plenty of examples of 3D printing having an impact, the hype around 3D printers has generally exceeded the reality.

But developments like the Iconn printer show the reality is catching up.

The Great Gig Work Flexibility Debate

A debate is raging around whether workers have to choose between the flexibility of gig work or the benefits and protections offered by traditional W2 employment. 

On one side are those who believe Uber and Lyft drivers - and most other gig workers - should be classified as traditional W2 employees.

They argue there's nothing in labor law that prevents companies from offering employees as much work flexibility as gig work does. 

They say gig companies should hire all their workers as W2 employees and give them the same flexibility they have as independent workers.  

Uber, Lyft, and other gig companies disagree. 

Uber's essay Can Employees Really Work However They Want? argues that workers can't have both - or at least rideshare drivers can't - because it's not economically feasible. Key quote:

Think about it this way: Starbucks offers one of the most flexible part-time jobs around, but baristas can't just walk in unannounced, decide they will only make lattes while refusing all orders for cappuccinos, leave during the morning rush to go pick up their kid from school (without permission from their boss) and return to work at a Peet's Coffee. That would absolutely be allowed under the law, so why doesn't it happen?

The answer is simple: businesses simply won't survive if they have zero control over what their hourly employees, whether full- or part-time, actually do. Imagine a restaurant that offered their employees the same freedoms that drivers currently have with Uber. On any given night they might have a single waiter trying to serve 100 customers or 100 waiters all serving one customer. In the middle of preparing a dish, the chef could leave to go cook for the food truck across the street. And anytime their employees decided to be on-shift, they would have to be paid, whether they had any work to do or the restaurant was closed. 

We've studied the tradeoffs associated with self-employment and gig work - what we call The Yin and Yang of independent Work - for over a decade. We're also gig workers ourselves and have been for a long time.  So we think we have a pretty good understanding of this issue. 

We agree that labor laws don't, per se, restrict worker flexibility. Companies could offer workers the same level of flexibility that Uber offers their independent drivers.

But we also agree with Uber.

Economic reality means firms offering the same flexibility as independent work wouldn't be operationally efficient enough to be financially viable.

Because of this, if rideshare companies are forced to classify their workers as employees, they will have to make significant labor changes to maintain their financial viability.  These would likely include:

• requiring driver schedules, which would greatly reduce worker flexibility
• a reduction in the number of full-time drivers
• a substantial reduction in the number of part-time drivers

Full-time drivers who are offered a job and are fine working to a schedule would clearly benefit from this shift. 

The much larger group of part-time drivers (the vast majority of rideshare drivers work part-time) would either lose their job or lose the flexibility they want or require. Also, some full-time drivers would likely lose their jobs and others, because they are unable or unwilling to work to a schedule, would need to find alternative employment.    

Riders would also be impacted.  Fares and wait times would likely increase and areas with low demand would likely see their service substantially reduced, or even eliminated.   

We agree that rideshare drivers and gig workers, in general, should be provided more legal protections, better working conditions, and higher pay.  Our concern is requiring gig workers to be classified as employees would hurt many more people than it helps.  

Uber has recently proposed a set of legal changes that would provide a third way for drivers. It's their attempt to fix what has been called the "square peg, round hole problem" with labor law. 

We don't think Uber's third way proposal goes far enough. But we think it's a good start.  

But we also think eliminating low friction, highly flexible work options that millions of Americans financially rely on makes no sense.  Because of this, we think California's AB5 is way too restrictive and is hurting many of the people backers claim it is designed to help.

So in our view, neither solution solves the problem. So we'd like to see both sides go back to the drawing board.

As a side note, we've asked those claiming companies can offer as much flexibility as independent work for examples of traditional W2 jobs that do this.  So far not a single example has been offered.  If you know of any examples, please let us know.  

Farmers Business Network Raises $250 Million

Farmers Business Network (FBN) provides a data and analytics platform that helps farmers - and especially family farms - with everything from seeds and planting advice to pricing and marketing.

They recently raised $250 million and the company is valued at $1.75 billion.  According to their press release:

FBN is an advocate for family farmers and ranchers and is committed to the premise that true price transparency levels the playing field for farmers – regardless of geography or size – and also enhances competition at the manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing levels. By providing timely and transparent pricing on crop protection products, biologicals, seeds, technology and services, as well as ecommerce purchasing and financing options, FBN arms farmers with the tools they need to make the best decisions for their business, their families and the planet.

FBN says they have 12,000 members, covering 40 million acres of farmland across the U.S., Canada and Australia.

They make money by cutting out middlemen and selling directly to farmers.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are over 2 million family farms in the U.S.  They categorize them into 3 groups:

• Very large family farms (101,265) gross over $500,000
• Large family farms (86,551) gross between $250,000 and $500,000
• Small family farms (1,925,799) gross under $250,000

Not surprisingly, small family farms - despite having an oversized presence at farmers' markets - only produce about 15% of U.S. farm products. 

And many of them only survive because the farmer has other sources of income. Family farms are also under financial stress due to trade wars and the impact of COVID-19 restaurant and cafeteria shutdowns. 

So any help family farmers can get is appreciated.

FBN is another example of the rapidly growing role platforms and ecosystems are playing for small businesses of all kinds.  And increasingly, the platforms target specific vertical or niche markets.

Uber's Third Way for Independent Contractors

Uber's 18-page report, A First Step Toward A New Model For Independent Platform Work, outlines their proposal for improving the financial security of independent contractors, especially Uber drivers. 

Uber's CEO also has an op-ed in the New York Times that provides highlights of the report and the reasons they issued it. 

The report has a series of nine proposals from Uber.  The report chart below (click to enlarge) summarizes these.

The RideShareGuy has an excellent review of the proposal from the drivers' point of view.  Because it's so good, we won't bother covering the same ground. 

Instead, we suggest you click here to read it.

Armchair Digital Nomads Hitting the Road

"Armchair digital nomads" is the term we use to describe the millions of Americans who aren’t currently digital nomads but tell us in surveys they plan on becoming one.  

We call them armchair digital nomads because in the past the vast majority who say this have not followed through. 

Instead, they've mostly treated digital nomadism as a spectator sport, following the exploits of real digital nomads via Facebook, Instagram, blogs, and other forms of social media.

For example, in 2019, 57.1 million Americans said they would (16.1 million) or might (41 million) become a digital nomad over the next 2-3 years. These numbers dwarf the 7.3 Americans who said they were currently digital nomads.

And based on data from prior years, we estimate pre-COVID only about 1.5 million of the 57.1 million armchair nomads became a digital nomad.

But COVID-19 is changing this.

The pandemic induced shift to remote work is untethering millions from their offices and even the need to be close to their offices. 

This is leading workers to leave their armchairs and become digital nomads.  

It's also changing digital nomadism in three key ways:

1.  More traditional employees are becoming digital nomads: In 2019, most digital nomads (almost 60%) were independent workers (freelancers, gig workers, self-employed, etc.).  This is because corporations have been hesitant to allow their employees to become nomadic.  This has obviously changed with a growing number of companies announcing they plan on allowing a much greater degree of remote work long term.  This gives millions of people the ability to become more nomadic - and many are doing so.

2.  Closer to home travel: Instead of flying from country to country, digital nomads are staying closer to home due to travel restrictions and a desire to be closer to family and healthcare.  This, too, will likely continue post-pandemic because nomadic traditional workers will likely be expected to show up at the office on at least an occasional basis.  Nomads will also choose closer locations due to a need to be in sync time-zone wise.  This means more #Vanlifers and RV based nomads.

3.  Longer stays, less travel: At least as long as the pandemic lasts, digital nomads will likely choose to stay put more and travel less.  We expect this trend to continue even after the pandemic ends. This is due to nomads learning the advantages of exploring a place and culture in-depth, countries increasingly courting digital nomads. and firms providing "living as a service" offerings that make multiple month stays easier.

We're currently doing a deep dive on how the pandemic is impacting digital nomads. We will report our findings in the fall.

MIT Economists on the Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets

The Hamilton Project essay The Nature of Work after the COVID Crisis: Too Few Low-Wage Jobs is authored by MIT economists David Autor and Elisabeth Reynolds. 

The essay covers four shifts being accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and their impact on labor markets. 

And, according to the authors, all four potentially have significant, negative consequences for low wage workers, economic inequality and overall employment. 

The four are:

1.  Telepresence: The essay points out that the shift to remote and telepresence is " is so self-evident that it might escape notice." But if there is a substantial reduction in the number of people working in offices and/or traveling to meet in offices, there will be much less need for the workers who feed, transport, clothe, entertain, and shelter people when they are not in their homes.

2.  Urban De-Densification: While stressing that "the death of cities have been greatly exaggerated over many decades," changes caused by COVID-19 will likely lead to a reversal in the growth of large urban centers due to people moving to the suburbs as well as smaller towns.  This, too, will result in less need for many workers who support those living in urban areas.

3.  Employment Concentration in Large Firms: Because of their stronger balance sheets and ability to raise capital, large firms tend to do better in economic downturns than smaller firms.  As we've pointed out, this recession is hitting small firms hard and many will likely permanently close this year.  

4.  Automation Forcing: Due to social distancing requirements and labor lock-outs, firms are quickly adopting automation technology (such as delivery drones) to keep their businesses running. This will likely result in leaner staffing in retail stores, restaurants, factories, and other places where companies have invested in labor-saving automation systems.

The authors suggest these four shifts will reduce the demand for low wage work, which will increase income inequality and long-term unemployment while also reducing economic growth.

Not good.

The essay ends on a positive note explaining that policy interventions at the federal, state and local levels could limit the negative impacts. 

NPR's economics show The Indicator has an excellent segment on the essay.  Also, see the essay for specifics on the policies they believe will be needed.

It's Looking Like a "Swoosh" Shaped Recovery for the U.S.

It's looking much less likely the U.S. will experience a sharp, V-shaped recovery. Instead, a growing amount of data is indicating a slower, "swoosh" shaped recovery is likely.

The swoosh refers to the shape of Nike's logo and indicates a recession that starts with a steep decline and is followed by a gradual recovery.

According to the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey, 70% of economists think the recovery will be swoosh shaped.

The reason is the continued outbreaks of COVID-19, which is leading to less economic activity.

The Opportunity Insights chart below (click to enlarge) shows an estimate of the percent change of total U.S. consumer spending.  

You can easily recognize the famous Nike swoosh in the chart.

You can also easily see that consumer spending stalled in mid-June and is running at about 6.4% below pre-COVID levels.  While much better than earlier this year, this is in a range that indicates we're still in a deep recession.  

Other data also supports a swoosh shaped recovery.  

The chart below is from Oxford Economic's U.S. recovery tracker.  The tracker looks at 6 economic sectors to develop an overall economic score.  

It again illustrates the swoosh.  But more ominously it also shows the U.S. economy has declined a bit over the past month.  Key quote:

"The foundations to this recovery are cracking under the weight of a mismanaged health crisis. Our Recovery Tracker fell for the third time in five weeks in the week ended July 10. The health index declined for the fourth consecutive week; demand fell for the second consecutive week, its largest decline in four months; and employment was unchanged."

Other data also points to a slower recovery, especially unemployment claims which have averaged well over 1 million a week over the past 4 weeks and rose last week over the prior couple of weeks. 

The resurgence of  COVID-19 likely means a full economy recovery won't happen until a vaccine is available and - and this is a big and - widely distributed.  This combination will likely not happen until at least Q2 of next year, and it could easily take longer.  

We, of course, hope the economy recovers quickly. But businesses of all kinds need to be prepared for the recession lasting well into next year.

Which Colleges Will Survive the Coronavirus

Scott Galloway is a professor at NYU, tech entrepreneur, author, and popular podcaster.  His article This Chart Predicts Which Colleges Will Survive the Coronavirus has caused quite a stir in colleges and universities across the country. 

The reason for the stir is the chart suggests a large number of colleges will fail and even more will struggle going forward.  His chart (click to enlarge) is below.  

Upsetting colleges, even more, is he names names.  And being listed as college likely to "perish" is not good PR.  

Galloway backs up his chart with a detailed analysis of the 438 US universities and colleges ranked by US News & World Report's top National University and National College rankings.

The analysis results in an index score for colleges that lumps the 438 colleges into 4 buckets - Thrive, Survive, Struggle and Perish.

Like all index-based ranking systems, there's plenty to quibble with if you don't like the scores.  But while we aren't all that knowledgeable about colleges, we have built multiple index ranking systems and this one looks pretty good to us.

You may ask why are we covering this in a blog focused on the future of work, small business and the gig economy?

The answer is colleges are facing the same set trends, shifts and dislocations as businesses and workers are.  So it's interesting to see how they're reacting.

Online Mental Health Marketplaces Democratizing Therapy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial increase in mental issues.  According to a Kaiser Family Foundation study:

"Over half of U.S. adults (56%) report that worry or stress related to the coronavirus outbreak has caused them to experience at least one negative effect on their mental health and wellbeing, such as problems with sleeping or eating, increased alcohol use, or worsening chronic conditions."

Several online marketplaces are trying to make it easier and cheaper for people looking for a therapist to find one. These firms match therapists with patients and provide billing and telemedicine solutions for mental health practitioners.

Frame, for example, is a new startup based in Los Angeles. 

They use answers to an online patient questionnaire to match potential patients with therapists.  

Denver based Sondermind also matches patients with therapists. 

As an added service they check to see if the patient's insurance covers all or part of therapy costs.   

They recently raised $27 million in venture funding.

Both firms are attacking two big problems customers face when shopping for a mental health provider. 

The first is finding a provider who is a good fit.  This is the common matching problem faced by all online talent marketplaces. 

Both Frame and Sondermind do this by asking patients to fill out questionnaires and based on the answers provide multiple therapist alternatives.  

Key quote from the founder of Frame in Yahoo Finance's article This startup works like a dating site for therapy:

“We facilitate free intro calls,” she said. “Our users typically call two to three therapists ... You get to talk it out and make sure it's the right fit for you so that you feel comfortable. And then you can make your decision.”

The second problem is cost.  Therapy is expensive.  Both firms offer telehealth solutions, which cuts down on the cost.  And as mentioned above, Sondermind also helps patients access and use insurance if possible (a feature Frame will no doubt also have at some point).  

By making it easier to find and connect with mental health professionals - and by reducing patients costs - both firms are trying to allow more people the ability to access mental health professionals.  This is part of the broader democratization of services trend we've long covered.  

At this point, there are few - if any -  professions that don't have specialized online talent marketplaces connecting service providers with customers.  Lawyers, doctors, dentists, wealth managers, mental health providers of all kinds, engineers of all kinds, etc., etc., etc. all have industry specific online marketplaces.  

There's still much work to be done before the use of most of these marketplaces is mainstream.  Matching, for example, continues to be an issue. 

But it's clear the use of online talent marketplaces is rapidly moving to the mainstream.