October's job gain numbers came in a 166,000, much higher than economists were expecting which why those clever economists are calling it a "surprise". One should never read too much into one month's job data, but it is surprising how resilient the economy is given the rising price of oil and the mortgage market problems. Q3 GNP grew at a pretty brisk 3.9% and while most economists are expecting a slow down in Q4 and into next year, few are predicing negative economic growth or a recession.
The BLS has a set of slides that go into detail, but the highlights are:
- the economy added 166,000 jobs in October and has averaged 135,000 new jobs per month over the last year.
- residential construction employment is down, as are jobs related to "credit intermediation". However overall construction was flat due to increased hiring for commercial building.
- Health care and food services employment continues to grow. Without the growth in health care jobs total private employment would have fallen over the last year.
I've posted before on the growth of small business leading to increased overall economic stability, and I think small business continues to help keep our overall economy moving despite the economic shocks.
While we won't have government data on job growth by firm size for at least another year, my guess is the 2007 numbers will be similar to 2004 when small businesses added all the net new jobs in the US.