Don't get me wrong, everyone is forecasting a recession and most mainstream economists are saying the world economy is headed for a major downturn.
But forecasts released this week by the National Association of Business Economists and the International Monetary Fund suggests a shallower and shorter downturn than the last big recession, which was in the late 1970s and early 1980's.
From where I stand this is good news. While a very painful recession, the US economy recovered strongly in the mid 80s and went on to a long period of relatively strong and stable economic growth. This period, which ended about about 6 weeks ago, is called The Great Moderation by economists.
The IMF is projecting the global economy will grow 3% next year with a gradual recovery in 2010. The IMF's base case forecast for the US is .1% growth next year.
The National Association of Business Economists released similar projections based on survey data of their members on October 1-2. Slightly more bullish than IMF, NABE has US economic growth recovering the 2nd half of 2009.
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