The NY Times article Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery covers the relatively optimistic 2009 consensus economic forecast of 50 professional forecasters compiled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Key quote:
"In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over."
The consensus of this group is the economy will start recovering in the 2nd half of 2009 driven by federal stimulus spending and lower oil prices.
Lower oil prices should have a substantial positive economic impact in 2009. The average American household uses around 900 gallons of gas per year (assumes the average American household drives 18,000 miles per year and averages of 20 miles per gallon - see this Brookings study for more detailed data on vehicle miles driven).
If gas is $2.00 a gallon cheaper in 2009 than in 2008, the average household will save $1,800. That is potentially a strong stimulus for the economy.
Steven Hansen shares his much more pessimistic forecast on the Seeking Alpha blog. But his post also includes links to a number of other economic forecasts - all of which are more optimistic than his.
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