Small Business Labs

Crop Mobs for the Agricurious

The New York Times continues its love affair with small farms and the slow food movement.  Field Report: Plow Shares covers crop mobs, which are:

"a monthly word-of-mouth (and -Web) event in which landless farmers and the agricurious descend on a farm for an afternoon..."

The article covers a crop mob of 50 that recently descended on the Okfuskee Farm in North Carolina to help with a wide variety of chores.  The lure is both farming and the opportunity to meet and commune with others who are agricurious.  Key quote from the article:

"The more tedious the work we have, the better,” Jones said, smiling. “Because part of Crop Mob is about community and camaraderie, you find there’s nothing like picking rocks out of fields to bring people together."

Alert readers will remember I grew up in a small farm town in Kansas.  Oddly enough, we never considered picking rocks out of fields entertaining. 

It's a fun article that highlights a number of trends we are following -small farms, slow food, new localism and the growing interest in sustainable products. 

Marriage and Divorce by State

OK, this doesn't have a lot to do with small business.  But I was reviewing demographic trends and ran across an entertaining interactive map showing state level marriage and divorce rates.

The map is from the Pew Social and Demographic Trends Center, which produces research on a wide range of trends and is a sister organization of the highly regarded Pew Internet.  As with Pew Internet, the information is free. 

My favorite statistic is that 10% of people in Arkansas who are or have been married, have been married at least 3 times.  This leads the nation.  Interestingly enough, we have a family friend in Arkansas, and she is on her 3rd marriage (the other two took place in California).

Idaho has the highest percentage currently married and Nevada leads in the percentage currently divorced. 

The median age for first time marrieds in the US is 28 for men and 26 for women. 

1 Billion Mobile Workers

According to IDC, the world's mobile workforce will pass the one billion mark in 2010 and grow to nearly 1.2 billion people – more than a third of the world's total workforce – by 2013.

Impressive numbers. 

Equally impressive is their finding that 72% of the U.S. workforce is mobile, growing to 75% by 2013.  According to the report press release, this is likely near the peak level of mobile workers in the U.S.

Given these numbers, it is easy to see why mobile computing has been on our top 10 small business trends list for several years. 

Grading The Stimulus Package

It's been a year since the passage of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009 - better known as the stimulus package - was passed. 

On one side of the political aisle, the Obama administration and Democrats have declared it a huge success that reversed a failing economy and created or saved millions of jobs. 

Republicans have responded saying the stimulus package didn't create a single job, damaged the economy and was a massive waste of money.   

The reality, of course, is somewhere between these politically driven extremes. 

The New York Times article Judging Stimulus by Jobs Data Reveals Success points out that non-partisan economists and the politically neutral Congressional Budget Office believe the package has created or saved 1.6 to 1.8 million jobs so far with 2.5 million expected by the time the program ends.  USA Today's most recent survey of economists echos this view.

Mainstream economists also credit the stimulus package with helping to stabilize the economy and adding as much 2% points to last year's GDP.  Adding to the belief that the stimulus package had an impact is many economists are concerned that the economy may slow when the stimulus spending runs out.  

There are also lots of examples of people who have gotten jobs and businesses who have benefited from the package.  This CNN article is one of hundreds of Google-able stories about people who got jobs because of the stimulus package. 

Based on the breadth and depth of this quantitative and qualitative data, it is clear the stimulus package had a positive impact on the economy in 2009, and likely will again in 2010. 

But just as declaring the package had no impact is a mistake, so is declaring it a success.  Over half the legislated spending has yet to hit the economy.  Most of the goals have not been achieved, and the cost of the package in terms of additional national debt is high. 

So for now we are giving the stimulus package an incomplete. 

Over the coming months we will post in more detail on the impact of the package on small business, and on the rest of the package spend.  Hopefully, after the majority of the money is spent we will be able to give the package a final grade.   

The Long Term Unemployed

The New York Times article Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs covers the surge in long term unemployment due to the Great Recession. 

As the chart on the right (from the article) shows, the number of people that have been out of work for at least 6 months has surged during the Great Recession.

Men make up over 60% of the long term unemployed.  But the article also highlights the plight of women aged 45-64, which is one of the fastest growing cohorts for long term unemployment.

We continue to be pessimistic about near term job growth.  Despite the clear signs of economic recovery, businesses remain focused on cost control and cash flow.  There is little appetite yet for hiring new employees.

The Atlantic Monthly on the New Jobless Era, End of Men

If you want to be depressed, read The Atlantic's How the New Jobless Era Will Transform America.  Their description of the article is:

"The Great Recession may be over, but this era of high joblessness is probably just beginning.  Before it ends, it will likely change the life course and character of a generation of young adults.  It will leave an indelible imprint on many blue-collar men.  It could cripple marriage as an institution in many communities.  It may already be plunging many inner cities into a despair not seen for decades.  Ultimately, it is likely to warp our politics, our culture, and the character of our society for years to come."

Like all Atlantic Monthly articles, it is extremely well written with lots of compelling data from a variety of excellent sources. 

While the article highlights many of the issues we see as part of our "end of men" trend, it is not just about the problems the recession is causing for men.  It covers the a broader set of societal problems that may be caused by the economic shifts that are occurring.

While we are more optimistic about the future, we do agree with much of the article's content.  In particular, we agree that unemployment will likely stay relatively high for the next couple of years.

It's a long article, but worth reading. 

Worker Classification is Going to be a Huge Issue

There is a clear, long term shift in the U.S. economy towards contingent employment.  This is the hiring of workers on a non-permanent basis, including the hiring of freelancers, temps, part-time workers, contractors, outsourcers and others who don't have full-time employment status.  

It is a trend with profound implications for workers, families, businesses and the U.S. economy. 

And whether you think this trend is good or bad, contingent workers will likely be a major part of next decade's labor force.  The drivers behind this shift - lower costs, increased business flexibility, growing worker interest in contingent employment, technology, etc.- are simply too strong to easily reverse. 

The New York Times article U.S. Cracks Down on "Contractors" as a Tax Dodge covers one of the major disputes around the growing use of contingent workers - money. 

Federal and state governments claim they lose billions of dollars in payroll taxes due to under-reporting by contractors.  They also claim they collect less in unemployment insurance and worker compensation taxes.  Because of this, they are aggressively going after companies they feel mis-classify full time employees as contingent workers.

This issue has huge implications because: (1) companies of all sizes are increasing their use of contract workers; and (2) a growing number of people are choosing to work as independent contractors. 

This used to be much simpler issue from the standpoint of the contingent worker - they almost always wanted to become full-time employees.  But that has changed.  A growing number of people are seeking the flexibility and work/life balance advantages contract work brings. 

Many of these folks believe their contract wage rate, coupled with additional work freedom, more than make up for lost benefits.  They also feel that being independent is actually more secure these days than full time employment. 

With businesses and some workers on one side, and government and other workers on the other side, this is an issue that's not going to be easily resolved. 

Bug Labs 2.0 and the State of Open Source Hardware

Bug Labs is an open source hardware company that produces modular hardware systems and related tools.

Think Lego-like computer modules that let consumers and companies quickly and easily mix and match to create custom electronic products.

Bug Labs launched several years ago to much fan fare.  At that time, open source hardware in general and Bug Labs in particular were going to be the next big thing. 

We too drank the open source hardware Kool-Aid, and in one of the Intuit Future of Small Business Reports said:

Just as open source software changed the software industry and created new opportunities for small and personal businesses, open source hardware will fundamentally change the electronics and other manufacturing industries.

Although open source hardware is off to a slower start than we expected, we are still bullish.  Texas Instruments is providing leadership through the OMAP standard and Bug Labs 2.0 is, by all accounts, a major upgrade over their first version. 

So while we may have to push our forecast out a few years, we still believe open source hardware will change manufacturing and create new opportunities for small and personal businesses. 

Data and Dating

Given the massive growth in traffic to online dating sites and it's Valentine's Day, it's not surprising that the New York Times has multiple articles on dating this weekend.

What is interesting is several of the articles focus on the growing role of data and analytics in the online dating process. 

Looking for a Date? A Site Suggests You Check the Data reports on a relatively new online dating site started by "math guys" called OKCupid.  They use statistical analysis to decipher what types of online profiles work best.  From the article: 

"If you’re a man, don’t smile in your profile picture, and don’t look into the camera. If you’re a woman, skip photos that focus on your physical assets and pick one that shows you vacationing in Brazil or strumming a guitar."

Three Steps to Demystifying Online Dating is written by the same reporter and provides data driven tips, techniques and advice on how to be a successful online dater.  My favorite piece of advice: 

"Honesty is the best policy, but within reason." 

In the Calculations of Online Dating, Love Can be Cruel covers some of the negatives of online dating, but points to OKCupid and their statistical work as a way to improve things. 

The article also points out a couple of emerging technologies and companies that are taking new approaches to online dating. The not so romantic sounding Grindr, for example, is an iPhone application that uses GPS technology to alert users of other Grindr members that are nearby. 

OK, so the role of data and analytics in online dating may not be the most romantic topic for Valentine's Day.  But since the rise of small business analytics is a trend we believe will have major impact over the next decade, it is worth looking at how it changing online dating.

Picture credit:  The picture is from the fun Ask Miss A advice site.

What I Learned From the Using Facebook to Grow Your Business Webinar

The podcast version of the Myventurepad webinar Using Facebook to Grow Your Business is now available. 

I was the moderator and learned a lot from the two expert panelists: Clara Shih, author of the best selling book The Facebook Era and CEO of Hearsay Labs; and Jonathan Smart, President of the Jimmy Smart Allstate Insurance Agency in Columbus, Georgia and skilled Facebook user. 

My big take away from the webinar is the trend towards companies, and especially small businesses, starting to use Facebook as a their main landing page on the Internet - or even their only Internet site.  This trend could fundamentally change the nature of the web.   

I also enjoyed hearing tips and techniques that make a Facebook company fan page more effective.  As I mentioned in the beginning of the webinar, while an active blogger, tweeter and user of LinkedIn, we don't use Facebook for our business. 

But after what we learned in the webinar, we're going to.  You should too.