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February 11, 2011


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Chris: The traditional economic view of extractive industries is the marginal unit of production is the highest and continues to rise with production. This is the economics behind the peak oil theory.

In general, I agree. But this view ignores the impact of cost changing new technologies.

In this case, horizontal drilling is substantially lowering the marginal cost of oil production.

The impact of this technology on natural gas is quite clear - dramatic increases in proven reserves and much lower prices.


Chris Parsons

I personally believe that we have reached Peak Oil, as explained by Chris Martenson (although I don't agree with all of his predictions). Basically, all peak oil means is that each gallon of oil we extract today is more expensive and requires more work than the gallon of oil from last week... It doesn't mean that the supply is running out (per se) but rather that the economics make it less desirable with each passing month. Naturally, this leads to increasing price of gas so as to make it continually economical. But that can't continue forever.

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