Reason's It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future reviews the not so positive book on forecasting Future Babble. The article's tagline: "Why dart-throwing chimps are better than the experts."
This is a reference is to a classic study of expert forecasts covered in the book. Conducted 50 years ago by UC Berkeley psychologist Philip Tetlock, the study concluded that most expert forecasts would have been beaten by “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”
It seems to be open season on futurists and forecasts. Just a few weeks ago we posted on the book The World's Worst Predictions, which claims modern day forecasters are no more accurate than the goat entrail reading Oracles of ancient times.
In our defense, the job is less messy today and no goats are injured during the process.
Despite the negative press - and the reality that no one can predict future - there's a clear trend towards a growing interest in trends and forecasts. The drivers are the growing complexity, increased uncertainty and rapid change of the modern world.
We're forecasting these will increase - more change, more uncertainty, more complexity. Because of this, we're also forecasting an increase in forecasts and forecasters.
And yes, we'll keep getting it wrong. But the alternative - dart throwing chimps - would get you into all sorts of trouble with animal rights groups.
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