The New York Times article Now, Anyone Can Buy a Drone. Heaven Help Us covers the growing use of drones by what the article calls "troublemakers and pranksters".
Key quote:
As the price of drones has fallen and sales have risen, the machines have emerged as central characters in stunts from the puckish to the criminal. In recent months, drone pilots have tried to smuggle contraband into prisons and disrupt sporting events at stadiums. Animal rights groups have turned to drones to stalk hunters as the hunters stalk wildlife. And in France, more than a dozen illegal flights over nuclear power plants have unnerved the authorities.
As the article points out, the vast majority of drone use does not cause problems. Also, drones are proving to be very useful for a wide variety of commercial applications in fields as diverse as farming, construction and film making.
But a big issue related to the adoption of any new technology are 2nd order effects.
These are the actions, forces or impacts a new technology has as it moves from the fringe towards the mainstream.
Often these forces are countervailing, meaning they act against the spread of a new technology.
The Segway provides an excellent example of countervailing forces in action.
When it was first introduced it was widely viewed as a world changing technology. Now, according to a recent article in The Week, "Segway remains one of the most memorable failed attempts at revolutionizing personal transportation.
In Segway's case the countervailing forces were safety related. It quickly became clear that sidewalks were often too narrow and crowded for Segways to be operated safely. This led to most cities and towns banning their general use.
Drones also face safety related countervailing forces. They also face legal and regulatory countervailing forces due to a growing realization drones can be used to create a lot of mischief.
Don't get me wrong - I like drones and think they are a very useful technology. I also think their commercial use will continue to grow at a rapid clip.
But the widespread use of drones will be constrained due to safety issues and regulatory moves to limit criminal uses.
Not considering 2nd order effects - and especially countervailing forces - is one of the most common forecasting mistakes. We try to avoid these mistakes through the use of scenario planning.
For example, last year after Amazon announced they were considering using drones to deliver goods we did a series of drone related scenario planning exercises.
It took very little time to realize that the 2nd order impacts of widespread drone use (safety, criminal activity, privacy, etc.) meant there would be strong countervailing forces limiting the use of drones.
We spend a lot of time on 2nd order effects in our work. Not considering them leads to a lot of forecast errors.
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