MBO Partners released a list of their 10 predictions for the next decade of independent work. The list covers a lot of ground and all the predictions are interesting.
But the predictions that caught our eye related to MBO's forecast that people are increasingly going to cycle between traditional jobs and independent work.
The two predictions that cover this are:
1. By 2027, more than half of the workforce will be, or will have been, an Independent.
Over 40 percent of the adult workforce reports currently or previously having worked as an Independent. In the next decade, that number will grow to nearly 60 percent.
2. Independence will become an episodic destination, not an end state.
Satisfaction levels for Independents are the highest they’ve ever been, but many will return to traditional work to gain new skills, cycling back to independent work several times.
The first prediction - that by 2027 over half of the workforce will have spent time as independent workers - is based on data from the annual MBO Partners State of Independence study series.
This study found that a bit over 40% of working adult Americans had spent some of their career working in a traditional job and working independently. The trend on this has been consistently upward since the study was first started in 2011.
The related prediction that independent work (freelancing, independent contracting, etc.) will become more episodic is also based in part on data from the State of Independence study.
This data shows that over the study time frame (2011-2017), the number of people who moved between traditional employment and independent work consistently has increased.
An example is the data showing a slight decline in the number of full-time independent workers over the past 2 years. This is due to the strong traditional job market attracting people back to traditional employment.
Most of the returnees are "reluctant independents", who are people who prefer traditional employment but were working independently for various reasons.
But some of the returnees are people who are going back to a traditional job to gain new skills or are attracted by new opportunities.
At the same time, others are leaving traditional jobs and becoming independent. These folks are attracted by the autonomy, control and flexibility independent work provides.
This is especially true for highly skilled, high earning workers who continue to move to independent work in growing numbers.
The cycling back and forth between traditional jobs and independent work is part of a broader shift towards what LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman calls "tours of duty".
These are 2-4 year assignments between a company and an employee with the expectation that many will leave the firm for other opportunities at the end of a tour.
Th break down of the traditional social contract between corporations and employees is leading to growing numbers of firms turning to tour of duty type assignments. Employees are also increasingly realizing they're effectively "free agents" even if they have a traditional job.
These shifts leading to more people spending some of their career as independent workers, even if they prefer traditional employment.
We certainly agree with MBO Partners that independent work will increasingly become episodic. So will traditional employment.
See MBO's press release for their other independent work predictions.
Disclosure: MBO Partners in an Emergent Research client and we work with them on the MBO Partners State of Independence study series.
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