The Axios article The American Baby Bust covers the latest fertility data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Key quote:
"The U.S. fertility rate has reached a record low, and the total number of births in 2018 was the lowest it has been in more than 30 years ..."
As the article chart below shows (click to enlarge), in 2018 there were 59 births per 1,000 women ages 15-34.
This translates to a fertility rate - the number of babies a woman of childbearing age is expected to have over her lifetime, of 1.72, which is a record low. It's also well below the replacement rate, which is 2.1.
The fall in fertility is being caused by a variety of reasons, many of them good reasons.
These are nicely covered in Time Magazine's It May Not Be a Bad Thing Fewer U.S. Babies Were Born in 2018 Than in Any Year Since 1986.
It points out births by teens are at an all-time low, mistimed/accidental pregnancies have also declined and women are choosing to have fewer babies because of greater career choices and increased levels of education.
But as we pointed out in 2014, kids get a lot of bad press due to the cost of raising them and the potential problems they can have or cause. This leads to fewer adults wanting them.
Also, the decline in birth rates is another example of the impact of economic uncertainty. Simply put, if you're uncertain about the future you're much less likely to have kids.
Immigration has offset the declining U.S. birthrates and helped keep the U.S. relatively young.
So we're in much better shape demographically speaking than most developed countries and especially countries like Japan, Spain and Russia which are experiencing population declines.
But obviously the U.S. is hardly welcoming immigrants these days, so we may not be able to count on them filling the gap going forward.
Declining fertility rates have enormous social and economic implications. We'll have more on this in the future.
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