The new business application surge, which started last summer, continued in April, with about 488,000 applications submitted.
This data comes from the U.S. Census' Business Formation Statistics and based on IRS Employment Identification Numbers (EIN) applications.
Most of the applications are what the Census calls "applications other than high propensity" (grey in the chart; click to enlarge). These are applications from businesses that are unlikely to have employees, such as freelancers, independent contractors and other types of solopreneurs.
The industry with the highest number of applications in April was retail trade, with 96,000 applications. This is a bit more than twice the rate of retail trade business applications prior to COVID-19.
In addition to the surge, both charts also illustrates the longer-term shift away from shift employer business applications (high propensity applications, in yellow) and towards applications from solopreneurs.
Back in 2003-2007 80% of new retail trade business applications came from firms planning on hiring traditional employees. In April, only 33% did.
This same shift to solopreneur firm applications is occurring in most industries. For example, the shift is even more pronounced in professional services than it is in retail.
At this point it's clear the surge in applications is real.
But more work needs to be done to understand who the new applicants are, what their plans are, and how many will actually form new small businesses.