EMERGENT RESEARCH is focused on better understanding the small business sector of the US and global economy.
Authors
The authors are Steve King and Carolyn Ockels. Steve and Carolyn are partners at Emergent Research and Senior Fellows at the Society for New Communications Research. Carolyn is leading the coworking study and Steve is a member of the project team.
Emergent Research works with corporate, government and non-profit clients. When we reference organizations that have provided us funding in the last year we will note it.
If we mention a product or service that we received for free or other considerations, we will note it.
... according to new SAP Concur travel and expense data gathered between January 2017 and December 2017 ... “bleisure” trips increased by 20% from 2016 to 2017. And during this time, more than 2.2 million bleisure trips were taken by business travelers around the globe, making up 10% of total business trips.
Back in 2015 bleisure travel was considered something that millennials mostly did.
But the SAP Concur data shows these days all ages are taking advantage of bleisure travel opportunities. Again from their post:
On average, millennials make up the largest share of bleisure travelers in the world, accounting for 38% of all bleisure trips in the Americas region in 2017, however Generation X (31%) and baby boomers (31%) are not far behind!
In case you're wondering where people go on their bleisure trips: "In the Americas the top destinations are NYC, Chicago, and Los Angeles; in EMEA, Tel Aviv, London, and Paris; and in APAC, Tokyo, Singapore, and Shanghai."
These locations are not surprising. They're all major business hubs that also attract a lot of leisure travelers.
Also not surprising is Airbnb is a growing supplier of bleisure travel accommodations.
According to Conur's data, 70% of expensed trips using Airbnb lodging include a Saturday night stay, compared to just 10% of trips with hotel bookings.
One of the most famous bleisure travelers is Marco Polo, so the the trend is not new. But it seems to be becoming much more popular.
MBO Partners last week released Digital Nomadism: A Rising Trend, a research brief on digital nomads. We worked with MBO Partners on this study.
Digital Nomads are wanderers who have a location-independent lifestyle that allows them to travel and work anywhere they can plug into the Internet.
Some are short-term nomads who only travel and work for short periods of time. Others do it for many years. And while globe trotting digital nomads get the most media attention, many never cross a border, choosing instead to live and work while exploring a single country.
The three key study findings from our perspective are:
1. About 4.8 million Americans currently describe themselves as being digital nomads. While only about 2%-3% of U.S. adults, this is still a large number of people.
2. About 17 million Americans who aren't currently digital nomads say they will become one over the next 2-3 years. Also, 42 million say they might become one over the next 2-3 years.
The research brief points out that most of these people are unlikely to become digital nomads. Instead, they will likely continue to be "armchair digital nomads" following the exploits of digital nomads instead of becoming one themselves.
But these numbers clearly illustrate how popular the digital nomad trend has become. As the Forbes article on the study - Digital Nomadism Goes Mainstream - points out, digital nomadism has become a spectator sport followed by millions.
3. The demographics of digital nomads are broader and more diverse than most think. While they skew male and younger, 31% are female and as the chart below shows, 54% are 39 or older.
We closely follow the digital nomad trend for several reasons.
First, digital nomads are basically mobile workers on steroids. Because of this, they provide insights on the future of distributed work.
They've also chosen a non-traditional career path with a focus on work/life balance and integration. These themes ripple through our broader research on independent workers.
And most of them are independent workers, which, of course, is one of the main areas we study.
We will continue to track and report on this topic. See the report for more details.
It includes an excellent video that is the most professionally done of any VanLife video we've seen and is well worth watching.
For those not familiar with with the VanLife trend, it refers to the growing number of mostly millennials who have traded in their homes and apartments for life on the road in vans.
Key quote from the article on the featured VanLife couple:
The couple is among other digitally savvy nomads, who have customized Volkswagen Syncros and other vans to live and work on the road rent-free. Some have parlayed their nomadic life into social media fame under the hashtag#vanlife. But Jess and Jorge aren't modern hippies abandoning capitalism. Between their Instagram posts, YouTube videos, blogging and photography, Jess and Jorge are hustling hard from inside their roughly 80-square-foot van.
It's become a bit of a craze and there are millions of #VanLife posts on Instagram, Pinterest, Facbook and Twitter.
These posts tend to show pictures of young, adventurous, photogenic millennials - often with adorable dogs - enjoying the great outdoors in beautiful places.
For example, the picture below is from the blog of the #VanLife Hearnes family and shows them having fun while touring Utah with their dogs.
What these pictures don’t tend to show are the downsides of VanLife.
These include limited access to bathrooms and showers, breakdowns, bad weather, work problems and the wide variety of challenges associated with living in a very small space.
The LinkedIn article and video are somewhat unusual in that they cover both the pluses and minuses of VanLife.
VanLife is part of the broader digital nomad trend. Digital nomads are folks with a location-independent work and lifestyle that allows them to roam the earth working and living anywhere that has a good Internet connection.
We’ve long followed the digital nomad trend. The reason is these people are mobile workers on steroids and they provide insights on the future of mobile and distributed work.
We’re just starting a project that includes more research on VanLifers and digital nomads. We’ll report our finding in the coming months.
In 2016, there were 291 million unique wireless subscribers in North America, representing 80% of the region's population.
There are now more mobile subscriptions in the U.S. than people.
We often point out that every time we make a mobile computing forecast we think it's too high. And so far every time we've made a mobile computing forecast, it's turned out to be too low.
We don't forecast smartphone data usage. Just as good. No way we would have forecast data usage to grow so quickly.
U.S. companies have long moved work overseas to save money. But a long emerging trend of moving work to lower cost areas of the U.S. instead of overseas appears to be gaining steam.
Although lower cost U.S. cities are more expensive than outsourcing overseas, rising salaries and costs overseas is making outsourcing there less of a bargain.
Meanwhile, locating in the U.S. has a number of advantages.
Having work done in the U.S. greatly reduces issues and problems associated with navigating time zones, cultures and languages that are common with international outsourcing.
The nature of software development and product design has also changed in ways that make domestic outsourcing more attractive. Key quote from NY Times article:
... companies in every industry need mobile apps and appealing websites, which can be made smarter with data and constantly updated. That software is best created by small, nimble teams, working closely with businesses and customers — not shipped to programmers half a world away.
Regular readers know one of our favorite trends is the paradox of place.
The paradox is even though the Internet and connective technologies has made working remotely easier than ever, people and companies are increasingly clustering together in fewer, more valuable locations.
But despite the paradox, there are a growing number of signals indicating that companies - and workers - are becoming more distributed.
Also driving this shift is cities like San Francisco and New York have become so expensive, it's simply become hard for companies and their employees to locate there,
The advantages of these remote locations include lower salary costs, higher standards of living for employees, greater ability to retain employees, less competition and consequently higher retention.
A number of domestic outsourcing firms have sprung up to tap into this trend. The New York Times article covers the Midwest-based Nexient, whose tagline is "100% U.S. based software partner".
Technology is, of course, the other driver of this shift. Next-generation chat, video calling, and project management software make it easier to coordinate work with and manage remote teams.
But paradox of place continues to be, well, paradoxical.
In person, face-to-face, co-location is the most effective form of communication, especially when you are faced with brainstorming and solving complex issues. Software development is often complex. And, the more that companies rely on technology to be a differentiator, the more complex it becomes.
So the trends indicate there will be both more distributed work and more co-located work. We believe both will continue to happen, at least for the next 5-10 years.
But we also think in the long run distributed work will become more common as technology reduces the problems associated with distance.
The short video below (less than 1 minute) give a quick overview of the Midwest's Silicon Prairie.
No matter how much we cover mobile computing, it seems in many ways we continue to underestimate its impact.
Recode's Big Smartphones Ate the Tablet Market big phones are defined as those with screens "between 5 inches and 6 inches in diagonal (an iPhone 7 Plus measures 5.5 inches diagonally)."
They report that in India and China almost 2/3rds of all smartphones are big. And while only In the U.S. only 33% of smartphones are big, they are rapidly gaining share.
The net result, as the Recode chart below shows, is tablet sales have slowed and are projected to decline about 1% per year over the next 5 years. Meanwhile, smartphone sales are forecast to continue to grow at about 7% per year.
This makes perfectly sense. Why buy a tablet if your phone is also effectively a tablet.
The interesting 2nd order impact of this shift is related to online video.
Americans spent about 7.5 billion minutes watching Netflix on their phones in June of 2017, according to data from media measurement company ComScore, up 73 percent since 2014.
As we reported last year, it's a mobile world and will continue to become even more so.
It has charts and data on things like the growth of data traffic, phones replacing cameras, its impact on advertising, etc.
But our favorite is it's impact on chewing gum sales.
As the article chart below shows, gum sales have declined substantially since the release of the iPhone.
The reason, according to the article, is we're now too busy looking at our phones in check-out lines to buy gum. Key article quote:
Supermarket checkout lines — strategically stocked with magazines and candy — were for a long time a major point of sale for gum. Consumers waiting on line to pay would look around and make impulse buys. Now, however, we’re so consumed with our phones that we’re not reaching for a pack of gum to stave off our boredom.
This is a great example of secondary effects and unintended consequences (we assume Steve Jobs was not targeting gum sales with the iPhone).
As the article points out there must be many more examples:
"Have drug dealing and other illegal activities become more efficient thanks to the smartphone’s discreet payment model? Has English become more prominent as English-language-based mobile apps connect the developing world? Have smartphones and the omnipresent connectedness they provide enabled the rise of helicopter parents, niche communities or better literacy."
As we pointed out in our article on OfferUp, Craigslist hasn't changed much in the past decade.
Nor does it have a very compelling mobile experience. Key quote from one of the investors in OfferUp:
Hans Tung from GGV Capital said that he invested in OfferUp because “Craigslist hasn’t innovated for a long time and there is unmet, pent up demand for classified on mobile.”
While Marketplace doesn't facilitate payments today, don't expect that to be the case for long.
Facebook first launched a Marketplace type product in 2007, but it wasn't successful. After a couple of retries, they shut it down in 2014.
But is seems likely this effort will be much more successful. Facebook has about 1.7 billion users, 450 million of which visit their buy and sell pages each month. Moving even a minority of these folks to Marketplace still results in a lot of commerce potential.
The move by Facebook validates the growing peer-to-peer commerce trend, which shows no sign of slowing down.
As the Business Insider Intelligence chart below shows, there are about 4.5 times more mobile Internet subscribers globally than there are people who access the Internet via a fixed subscription (for example, a cable modem like the one I'm using right now).
At the same time, more people are dropping home broadband.
According to Pew Internet's Home Broadband 2015 report, "the share of Americans with broadband at home has plateaued, and more rely only on their smartphones for online access."
As the chart below from their report shows, since 2013 U.S. home broadband penetration has declined while the percent of Americans who only have smartphone Internet access has increased.
These trends will continue as mobile data charges and smartphone costs continue to decline.
Everyone knows mobile computing has gotten big. But every so often a number comes along that still amazes us.
IDC has released a study that predicts worldwide smartphone shipments will grow 9.8% in 2015 to a total of 1.43 billion units.
This is equal to about 19.6% of the world's population (7.3 billion). In other words, 1 out of every 5 people in the world got a new smartphone in 2015.
Gartner is forecasting 2015 mobile phone shipments (smart and otherwise) of 1.9 billion, which means 26% of humans got a new cellphone (smart and otherwise) in 2015.
As their chart below shows, the global number of mobile subscriptions (7.4 billion) now exceeds the number of humans (7.3 billion) Their data also shows about 47% (3.4 billion) of all humans have a smartphone.
Ericsson is forecasting the number of smartphone subscriptions will grow to 6.4 billion in 2021. This means over 80% of the world's population will have a smartphone in 2021.
OK, we are overstating this a bit. As Ericsson points out in their report, many people have multiple mobile subscriptions. Key quote:
... inactive subscriptions and multiple device ownership, e.g. for business and private use, or to optimize pricing by using different operators for different calls (this is common for example in parts of Africa). In developed markets, users add devices such as tablets. This means that the number of subscribers is lower than the number of subscriptions – the current figures are around 4.9 billion subscribers versus 7.4 billion subscriptions
So really only 2/3rds of the world's population currently has a mobile subscription. That's still amazing.
