McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2021 suggests the global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2027 and steadily fall afterwards.
As McKinsey's report chart below shows (click to enlarge), global coal demand peaked in 2014 and they are projecting oil demand to peak in 2029, and natural gas demand peaking in 2037.
Other forecasts are even more aggressive. A recent report by the International Energy Agency suggests oil supply and gasoline demand may have already peaked. Key quote from their report:
"Gasoline demand is unlikely to return to 2019 levels, as efficiency gains and the shift to electric vehicles eclipse robust mobility growth in the developing world."
The drivers of these changes, of course, are the steady declines in the cost of renewable energy sources and their increased use.
As forecasters we're fascinated that the term "peak oil" now refers to the point in time when global oil demand begins to fall.
It wasn't that long ago when "peak oil" was used to describe the point in time when oil supplies started running out.
There were even a bunch of forecasts in the 2000's suggesting a lack of oil would lead to the collapse of modern civilization, with many suggesting the collapse would happen by 2020 - or even earlier.
Instead of running out of oil, it's now likely vast amounts will end up staying in the ground.
The last issue keeping renewables from fully replacing fossil fuels is storage. But that's quickly changing.
Large battery storage systems are coming down in price and "green hydrogen" systems are becoming viable.
So expect to see the declines in the use of fossil fuels continue - and maybe fall even faster than McKinsey estimates.