Small Business Labs

The Return of the End of Men Trend

There's been a flurry of recent articles on the declining share of men enrolled in colleges and universities.

The Wall Street Journal's A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: ‘I Just Feel Lost’ seems to have started the flurry.  Key quote:

At the close of the 2020-21 academic year, women made up 59.5% of college students, an all-time high, and men 40.5%, according to enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse, a nonprofit research group. U.S. colleges and universities had 1.5 million fewer students compared with five years ago, and men accounted for 71% of the decline.

Quickly following were stories from The Atlantic, New York Times, USA Today and others on the same topic.

As the Bloomberg chart below shows, the college gender gap has been in place for several decades.

The gap also widened in 2020, with the pandemic-induced decline in college enrollments hitting men a bit harder than women.

So men struggling academically relative to women is not a new trend.  And it generated a lot of attention a decade ago.

The 2010 Atlantic article The End of Men, released as a book in 2012, focused on the academic underperformance of men relative to women.  

This article and book also covered other issues faced by men and boys.

These include higher rates of incarceration, addiction, suicide and mental illness than are experienced by women.   

We covered these and other issues men face in our 2010 article on the end of men.

This sudden media interest in this topic illustrates an interesting aspect of trends - they can lie low or disappear for years and then suddenly reappear.

In this case, the renewed interest is certainly justified. The problems men and boys face have, if anything, increased over the past decade. 

Moment House and the Blending of Social Media and Digital Entertainment Experiences

Moment House is a live streaming, interactive social media platform for digital entertainment.

Newly launched in 2020, Moment House has produced over 700 concerts, called “moments,” selling one million tickets through its platform. Each unique digital experience can generate tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue for creators who can reach audience members from all over the world.

The moments have featured big-name artists such as Justin Bieber, Halsey, Kygo, and Tame Impala, but the creator economy platform also provides opportunities for emerging creators with small audiences to monetize their fans.

Moment House recently closed a $12 million investment round led by Forerunner Ventures.  They plan to use this money to expand their platform to all kinds of events, including comedy, speeches, business events, and interactive podcasts through the use of live audio rooms.

Moment House held a Louis the Child concert on August 29th, which was a recorded experience of the live performance at Colorado’s Red Rocks Amphitheatre on August 27th.

The show was interactive, with a live chatroom for users to talk, and the sound quality was quite impressive. 

Their platform also allowed audience members to use breakout chatrooms during the show, allowing audience members with similar interests to connect and interact in smaller groups.

The camera panned to all different angles of the unique concert venue: up close on stage, to bird’s-eye views of the dancing audience. For a price tag of only $12, this was an attractive deal to fans who were not located in Colorado or could not pay the $60 cost of a normal ticket.

The CEO of Moment House, Arjun Mehta, emphasizes the importance for modern creators to provide more online interactive entertainment for fans, which is achievable through Moment House’s engaging platform.

In the competitive creator economy, the digital experiences of Moment House provide more meaningful memories, ultimately building stronger fan bases for creators with both large and small audiences, compared to pre-recorded and asynchronous events on a typical streaming site.

Moment House nicely illustrates the trend towards online entertainment experiences, the use of social media to better engage audiences, and the growing array of services helping creators large and small reach and monetize their audiences. 

The Independent Worker Surge

After falling by 7% in 2020 due to the pandemic, the number of independent workers (freelancers, independent contractors, gig workers, etc.) rose to 51.1 million in 2021, an unprecedented 34% increase.

This is the key finding from MBO Partners 2021 State of Independence research study. This is the 11th year this study has been conducted.

As the study chart below shows (click to enlarge), the number of full-time independent workers increased by 25%. By labor market standards, this is a huge increase.

But there was even a bigger surge in those working as independents part-time, but occasionally (regularly, but without set hours per week) as independents. Their ranks grew from 15.8 million in 2020 to 23.9 million in 2021, a 51% increase.

Most occasional independents work this way to supplement their income or pursue a passion or a hobby.  

For example, many rideshare and delivery drivers are occasionals. They fit in their driving work hours when they can, usually around other obligations (caregiving, school, a traditional job, etc.).  

Another example is a craftsperson who sells their work on Etsy as a side gig. When their schedule permits or demand for their product is high, they may work 10 or 20 hours, or even more in a single week. But other weeks, they may not work at all or spend very little time on their side gig.  

There is a mix of reasons for the surge in independent workers:

1. The pandemic has many people rethinking what work means to them and reevaluating how they want to live and the type of work they want to do. This has more people turning to independent work for the autonomy, control, and flexibility it provides.  
2. Many lost their jobs or had their work hours cut due to the pandemic. This accelerated the existing trend towards people needing to take on 2nd and even 3rd jobs to supplement their income.
3. Online platforms, marketplaces, and social media have made it cheaper and easier to become an independent worker.  The burgeoning creator economy is an example.
4. The pandemic has reinforced a growing view that traditional jobs are riskier and less secure than they once were. This makes going independent more attractive.

See MBO Partners' research brief for more details.

Emergent Research worked with MBO Partners on this study.

The Metaverse is Coming

The metaverse has been getting a lot of media attention recently, mainly because Mark Zuckerberg announced that Facebook plans to shift from being a social media company to a metaverse company.

So what is the metaverse?

There is no standard, widely accepted definition. The Wall Street Journal, in its article Facebook, Roblox See the 'Metaverse' as Key to the Internet's Next Phase, describes it as:

"The metaverse concept, rooted in science-fiction novels such as "Snow Crash" and "Ready Player One," encompasses an extensive online world transcending individual tech platforms, where people exist in immersive, shared virtual spaces. Through avatars, people would be able to try on items available in stores or attend concerts with friends, just as they would offline."

Facebook's first metaverse effort is a virtual conference room service called Horizon Workrooms. The application allows users to meet in virtual reality conference rooms and collaborate on shared whiteboards or documents while still sitting at their own physical desks.

Facebook's video below provides more details on the virtual conference room.

 

The online game industry is also promoting the metaverse.

TechCrunch's article Fortnite's Ariana Grande concert offers a taste of music in the metaverse describes the integration of the metaverse and popular music artists.

Fortnite (an online gaming company) also held a virtual concert featuring rappers Travis Scott and Marshmello. Over 12 million people watched it live, and the concert video (below) has been viewed over 60 million times.

 

While most of the current metaverse hype is around its use by consumers, there's also a growing array of industrial applications.  Wunderman Thompson's Building the Metaverse describes a joint effort by virtual reality chip producer Nvidia and BMW to build a "digital twin" of the car company's factory in Regensburg, Germany.

This will allow BMW to virtually to test changes in the plant's configuration and workflows digitally before implementing them in their physical factory - saving BMW time and money.

In many ways, and despite our title, the metaverse is already here.  But its use and applications - both consumer and industrial - will become much more common over the next few years.  

LA's Creator Townhouse Community

The Hollywood Reporter's New Studio City Townhouses Draw Digital Creators Thanks to Hybrid Zoning covers a new townhouse community designed for artists and creative professionals.  

Quite unusual in LA, the townhouses have live/work zoning approval.  Key quote from the article on the units:

"Located at the edge of Studio City, across from Universal Studios, Thirty Four Fifty West has hybrid zoning that permits people to have a full professional office or creative studio with industrial grade electrical and the like in spaces where they can also live in luxury."

The townhouses are 3 stories (plus a loft above the 2nd story), and according to the article, most buyers use the first and second stories as creative office areas, reserving the third floor as their residence.

The prices start at just over $1 million, so starving artists and creators need not apply.  But by LA standards, that's pretty reasonable.

It will be interesting to see if more communities are built to support the work/life needs of independent workers and creative professionals.

How the Pandemic Changed the Way Americans Spent Their Time

The New York Times article More phone calls, less shopping: how the pandemic changed American lives, down to the minute examines data from the American Time Use survey to show the changes in how Americans spent their time last year.  

The article charts below (click to enlarge) shows the biggest winners and losers, timewise. 

The key change from 2019 is that during the second half of 2020, Americans spent ten waking hours a day at home. This is up from 8 hours in 2019.

We spent about a third of that time on leisure activities, with the rest spread out across a variety of endeavors - including getting a bit more sleep.

According to the data, we spent less time on grooming, but only 5 minutes less per day.  This is likely an example of people not telling the truth on surveys. 

Based on our personal experience and anecdotal observations of others, grooming time fell by much more than that.

Forerunner Ventures on Solopreneur Commerce

Forerunner Ventures was founded about a decade ago with a focus on direct-to-consumer ecommerce brands. 

And they've invested in some of the most successful companies in this space, including Bonobos, Warby Parker, Jet, Dollar Shave Club and others.

They are now investing in a space they call The Empowerment Economy, which they describe as:

"The true power of digital connectivity is set to upend the economy at large, powering a new generation of solopreneuers and financial freedom. This movement stands to uplift more people than any economic evolution to date."

Their essay The next revolution in commerce will be driven by the seller goes deeper into this thesis:

If commerce is a transaction between buyer and seller, the face of the seller is evolving with new tools for discovery and purchase that allow for a personal relationship between creator and customer. Beyond a corporation or mass retailer, the seller is now frequently a person or small business. We are seeing a new long-tail retailer learning how to make the internet work in their favor, enabled by social media and without the need to lean into a digital mass marketplace—they simply need a captive audience, which is easier to attract than ever.

Forerunner's chart below summarizes why think this happening at this point in time.

The emergence of niche and solopreneur ecommerce firms is not a new trend. 

But it appears to be hitting a growth inflection point, helped in part by the rise of the creator economy.  Creators need ways to generate revenue, and an increasingly popular way is by selling merchandise to their fans.  

The growth of solopreneur ecommerce is also showing up in the business applications and formation statistics, with applications from solopreneur retail businesses at an all time high.

So we agree with Forerunner and expect solopreneur ecommerce to continue to expand.

A VC's Guide to Gen Z

Digital Native is an interesting Substack newsletter from Index Ventures' Rex Woodbury.  

His recent article - A Guide to Gen Z Through TikTok Trends, Emojis, & Language - nicely describes several behavioral characteristics of Gen Z.  

It also covers their often changing and confusing (at least to older generations) use of emojis, language and social media.   

The article breaks the behavioral descriptions into 3 categories:

1.  Authentic & Unique - Key quote:

"Authenticity—while becoming a tired word to describe Gen Z ethos—captures where young people derive status online: status comes from being singular. If Millennials tried desperately to fit in, Gen Zs try desperately to stand out."

2.  Creative & Self-Expressive - Key quote:

"Gen Zs view themselves as highly-creative: over half (51%) say that Gen Z is more creative than previous generations. While Gen Zs deserve some credit (they really are quite creative!), they’re also the beneficiaries of better tools for self-expression. TikTok makes it orders of magnitude easier to be creative than a platform like YouTube."

3.  Pragmatic & Self-Directed - Key quote:

“Traditional” careers are anathema to many Gen Zs. Many grew up watching parents lose jobs during the Great Recession; they have an inherent skepticism of “the system” and refuse to work within it. This manifests in everything from growing populism (see: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders) to the rise of Dogecoin and side hustles."

The simple article chart below (click to enlarge) is our favorite from the article. It illustrates how much easier for Gen Z to be both creative and entrepreneurial than it was for prior generations.

Gen Z's entrepreneurial interest is most relevant to us.  

But all three attitudes are important in terms of how Gen Z will impact society and the economy in the coming years.

Small Business Applications in May 2nd Highest Ever

May was yet another banner month for new business applications.  As the U.S. Census chart below shows (click to enlarge), 500,219 business applications were filed in May. 

This was the second highest number of applications filed since this data was first collected in 2005.

The recent surge in applications started last summer in July when a record 551,000 business applications were filed.  

The surge has, so far, continued in 2021.

See our prior posts on the business applications surge for more on this topic:

• May 18th, 2021: Led by Retail, The Surge in New Business Applications Continues
• February 12t, 2021: New Business Applications Surged Again in January
• February 9th, 2021: The Long Term Shift in Business Applications to Solopreneurs
• November 10th, 2020: The Surge in New Small Business Applications

McKinsey on Technology Trends

McKinsey, which is best known as a strategy consulting firm serving CEOs and seniors executives at large corporations, recently released its top trends in tech list.

They say the list was developed using a "unique methodology" that identifies the trends "most relevant to competitive advantage and technology investments."  The list is below (click to enlarge).

Despite McKinsey's unique methodology, the list looks pretty similar to other technology trends lists to us. 

But McKinsey does a nice job of explaining the trends and why they are important.  It's also worth knowing what McKinsey is thinking because of their corporate C-suite and board influence.  

And we like and agree with McKinsey's view on what's driving technological change.  Key quote:

"Unifying and underlying them all is the combinatorial effect of massively faster computation propelling new convergences between technologies; startling breakthroughs in health and materials sciences; an array of new product and service functionalities; and a strong foundation for the reinvention of companies, markets, industries, and sectors."

When we founded Emergent Research many years ago we debated whether or not to call ourselves Convergent Research instead. 

We picked Emergent Research because at that time so many important trends were emerging - things like A.I., social media, cloud computing, big data, coworking, the gig economy and others.

But as McKinsey points out, convergences between technologies, social and economic trends have become increasingly powerful drivers of change.  Because of this, we'd likely pick Convergent Research if we were choosing today.  

Getting back to McKinsey's trends report, it's well worth reading if you're interested in technology trends.